Tropical Storm Imelda expected to become hurricane off Southeast US coast
After moving over the Bahamas Sunday, Imelda is expected to turn east-northeast, moving away from the Southeast U.S. by midweek. With the latest track bending away from the U.S., Tropical Storm Watches for Florida were dropped.
Imelda to bring tropical storm conditions to Bahamas
With the latest advisory on Tropical Storm Imelda from the NHC, tropical storm alerts were discontinued for portions of the eastern Florida coastline. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross explains why this bend in the track led to the advisory changes.
MIAMI – Tropical Depression Nine intensified into Tropical Storm Imelda near the central and northwestern Bahamas on Sunday afternoon and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane off the southeastern U.S. coast early this week.
A tropical storm is a tropical cyclone that has maximum sustained winds between 39 and 73 mph – an upgrade from a tropical depression.
Once Tropical Storm Imelda's winds reach 74 mph or higher, it will be designated as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffirr-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
With the latest advisory from the NHC, Tropical storm alerts were discontinued for portions of the eastern Florida coastline.
Meanwhile, at least two states have declared preemptive states of emergency as Imelda remains on its way to becoming a hurricane, bringing the potential threat of days of flooding rain and strong winds to parts of the Southeast coast.
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While Florida isn’t expecting a landfall from Imelda, the tropical storm is expected to move close enough that it could bring tropical-storm-force winds on Monday.
Next comes solving the complicated future of Tropical Storm Imelda, which still features multiple scenarios over the next several days.
Imelda to bring rough surf, rain to coastal Georgia
FOX Weather Correspondent Katie Byrne reports from Tybee Island, Georgia where residents are on alert for Tropical Storm Imelda. First responders say they are preparing for coastal flooding and heavy rain.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Tropical Storm Imelda is currently located about 370 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida, and is moving off to the north at 7 mph.
On that track, the NHC said Imelda will move across the central and northwestern Bahamas through Sunday night.
"On Tuesday, Imelda is expected to turn sharply to the east-northeast. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas this afternoon and tonight and then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S. by the middle part of this week," the NHC said.
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A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and Sal Salvador. Portions of the northwestern Bahamas are also included in the Tropical Storm Warning.
But while there remains some lingering uncertainty in Tropical Storm Imelda's eventual track as it continues to move north early this week due to a myriad of complex atmospheric variables in play – including Imelda's proximity to major Hurricane Humberto – multiple forecast models suggest Imelda could still track close enough to the Southeast coast to bring significant impacts from Florida to North Carolina.
The NHC's official forecast cone predicts Imelda will reach hurricane status just off the east coast of Florida by Monday night or Tuesday and remain a hurricane throughout the week as it crawls northward just off the southeastern U.S. coast, then takes a sharp turn to the east-northeast and tracks in the direction of Bermuda.
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"Even if likely-Hurricane Imelda does not make landfall, potentially dangerous rainfall is likely over at least South Carolina and the eastern two-thirds of North Carolina, with the Lowcountry and southeastern North Carolina getting the most," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said.
The NHC said storm rainfall totals of 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts of up to 7 inches, are expected through Wednesday morning across portions of the coastal Carolinas. That rainfall could result in flash, urban and isolated, minor river flooding.
However, the NHC said changes to the forecast track would also change the forecast rainfall totals.
Minor coastal flooding is also possible in areas with onshore winds over the southeastern U.S. Forecasters said areas from the Volusia/Brevard County line in Florida to the South Santee River in South Carolina could see a 1- to 2-foot storm surge.
"I think the thing we're most concerned about is it's not going to (need) a direct landfall for there to be some significant impacts from storm surge, winds, rainfall, flooding, especially if we have a system that's meandering here along or near the coast, say, of South Carolina," National Hurricane Deputy Director Michael Brennan told FOX Weather. "And there are still scenarios where the system could come in and make landfall or sit here for several days or stall out and then move off to the east. So, but again, it's just to remind people that even if you don't see an explicit landfall forecast, it doesn't mean there aren't going to be impacts."
The worrisome forecast has prompted South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster to declare a preemptive state of emergency for the entire state.
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States prepare for potential impacts
Aside from the state of emergency in South Carolina, cities and counties were taking localized precautions.
The City of Charleston announced a local state of emergency Saturday, clearing storm drains, lowering water levels, prepositioning water pumps and bringing in extra staff.
"Today’s action is about readiness," Mayor William Cogswell said. "We’ll keep residents informed with clear, timely updates as the forecast evolves."
Conway, South Carolina, declared a local state of emergency ahead of the storm, and Folly Beach closed its City Hall on Friday.
North Carolina's Emergency Management department said it is also monitoring the latest weather forecasts.
Duke Energy, which services power to 80 counties in North Carolina, said a significant portion of the storm's possible path is in its service area.
"Our in-house team of meteorologists is following the path of that storm, and we use that forecast to power our damage modeling system," spokesperson Jeff Brooks told FOX Weather. "And that modeling system helps us to identify where we’re likely to see storm impacts. Our goal is always, if we can, to position resources at the appropriate places so they’re able to respond quickly when the storm strikes."
It's been a busy few weeks in the Atlantic with Hurricane Gabrielle first, and now Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda are ongoing simultaneously several hundred miles apart.
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The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.