Future Hurricane Imelda prompts State of Emergency as Southeast coast prepares for impacts, potential landfall
What was Invest 94L has been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. Forecasters say it will become Imelda soon.
Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross gives exclusive analysis on Potential Tropical Cyclone 9's future
The National Hurricane Center just designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine in the Atlantic. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross provides exclusive analysis on the system's possible impacts on the Southeastern U.S. into next week.
MIAMI – Tropical storm alerts have been posted and at least one state has declared a pre-emptive state of emergency as a looming storm system is on its way to becoming future Hurricane Imelda, bringing the potential threat of heavy rain and strong winds to parts of the Southeast.
The storm that had been known as Invest 94L was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine on Friday, allowing the National Hurricane Center to begin issuing key alerts. Potential tropical cyclone is a status used by the NHC when a tropical cyclone will likely impact land and warrants alerts but is short of being a named storm.
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PTC Nine is located in the vicinity of eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas and has winds of 35 mph. Once the storm reaches 40 mph, it will become Tropical Storm Imelda – currently forecast to happen by Saturday night or Sunday morning, the NHC says.
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Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the central Bahamas, while Tropical Storm Watches cover the northwestern Bahamas.
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But while there remains tremendous uncertainty in the storm's eventual track as it continues to move north early next week due to a myriad of complex atmospheric variables in play – including the storm's proximity to major Hurricane Humberto – multiple forecast models suggest the potential for the storm could make landfall and/or bring significant impacts to the Southeastern coast.
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The NHC's official forecast cone currently predicts future-Imelda could reach hurricane status just off the Southeastern coast by late Monday and remain that way into Tuesday before reaching or nearing the coast into the middle of the week.
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"An increasing threat of heavy rainfall from this system is forecast over the southern Mid-Atlantic through coastal Georgia which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding into next week," the NHC wrote in its Friday evening tropical update.
The worrisome forecast has prompted South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster to declare a preemptive state of emergency for the entire state.
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross agreed with the complex forecast, noting that computer models are split on whether likely-Imelda will directly hit the U.S. mainland.
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"There is a strong consensus in the various computer forecasts that Imelda will likely track to the north, paralleling the Florida coast at least through the weekend," Norcross said Friday. "About Monday, however, it looks likely to face a fork in the road. Either it will turn right, out to sea, or it will arc left into the Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina coast."
Norcross emphasized that forecasts for just-developing systems are subject to large errors and are likely to change.
NOAA's Hurricane Hunters flew reconnaissance missions into PTC Nine Thursday and Friday which will provide the NHC with better data collection in both the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere. This data will help computer forecast models develop a more accurate picture of the track and future intensity of the storm.
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States prepare for potential impacts
Aside from the state of emergency in South Carolina, cities and counties were taking localized precautions.
The City of Charleston announced Friday that stormwater pumps had been deployed, and local lake levels had been lowered, among other preparations.
Conway, South Carolina declared a local State of Emergency ahead of the storm and Folly Beach closed its City Hall on Friday.
North Carolina's Emergency Management department said it is also monitoring the latest weather forecasts.
This is satellite imagery of Invest 94L.
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Duke Energy, which services power to 80 counties in North Carolina, says a significant portion of the storm's possible paths are in their service area.
"Our in house team of meteorologists is following the path of that storm, and we use that forecast to power our damage modeling system," spokesperson Jeff Brooks told FOX Weather. "And that modeling system helps us to identify where we’re likely to see storm impacts. Our goal is always if we can is to position resources at the appropriate places so they’re able to respond quickly when the storm strikes."
Torrential rains threaten dangerous flooding in Caribbean
PTC 9 is expected to bring several inches of rain and tropical storm-force winds to the Bahamas and nearby Caribbean Islands, prompting flash flooding threats.
"This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica," the NHC said.