This nor’easter may follow the same path as Superstorm Sandy, but it’s nothing like it

THE TAKEAWAY

• The first nor’easter of the fall is developing and is raising questions about whether the storm could become another Superstorm Sandy.
• The two storms are fundamentally different, aside from both impacting the Northeast and having non-tropical characteristics during part of their life cycles.

The first nor’easter of the fall is developing, bringing gusty winds and rain to parts of the East Coast and raising questions about whether the storm could become another Superstorm Sandy.

DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER THREATENS MILLIONS ALONG EAST COAST WITH DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING, POWERFUL WINDS

The storm is forecast to bring a prolonged period of pounding surf, significant beach erosion and coastal flooding, with impacts beginning days before the nor’easter tracks northward toward the Northeast.

Once the storm strengthens near New England, a tightening pressure gradient is expected to bring the strongest winds to the region, with wind gusts potentially exceeding 60 mph and waves reaching 15 to 18 feet along the coast.

Peak onshore winds, high astronomical tides and trapped coastal water could create the greatest risk for significant coastal inundation and structural flooding along east-facing shores, including Boston Harbor, Cape Cod and the North and South shores.

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Those potential impacts have led some to compare the upcoming nor’easter to Superstorm Sandy that crashed ashore near Atlantic City, New Jersey, on Oct. 29, 2012.

However, the two storms are fundamentally different, aside from both impacting the Northeast and having non-tropical characteristics during part of their life cycles.

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Superstorm Sandy began as a powerful tropical cyclone before transitioning into a post-tropical storm shortly before making landfall. The storm was then pulled westward toward New Jersey by an upper-level trough of low pressure oriented from the northwest to the southeast.

A similarly positioned trough could potentially pull the upcoming nor’easter closer to the coast.

Other than that, the two storms are very different.

Superstorm Sandy was a Category 3 hurricane at its peak before transitioning into a powerful post-tropical system. The upcoming nor’easter will be a non-tropical area of low pressure from the start as it develops off the East Coast.

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Sandy was also much more powerful than the nor’easter is expected to be. Its central pressure dropped to 940 millibars at landfall, while the nor’easter’s lowest pressure is expected to remain above 980 millibars.

Sandy also had a massive wind field, with tropical storm-force winds extending more than 1,100 miles. At one point, wind gusts of at least 40 mph were recorded across 20 states, stretching from Florida to Maine and to Wisconsin.

The upcoming nor’easter is expected to produce over 40 mph wind gusts across roughly eight to 10 states at most.

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When Sandy reached the Northeast, the storm produced wind gusts of up to 95 mph and generated catastrophic storm surge along the coasts of New Jersey and New York. Water levels reached as high as 12 feet above normally dry ground in some locations.

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Sandy also produced waves as high as 30 feet along the coast, triggering a storm surge that destroyed more than 600,000 structures in New York and New Jersey alone.

The upcoming nor’easter is expected to be hard-pressed to produce wind gusts of 70 mph on land and is forecast to bring minor to moderate coastal flooding, with water levels likely no more than about 3 feet above normally dry ground.

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The worst coastal flooding is expected to occur Wednesday, before the nor’easter even fully develops. Water levels are expected to rise no more than about 4 feet above normally dry ground.

Unlike Sandy, the upcoming nor’easter is not expected to cause widespread structural damage from coastal flooding, and peak waves along the coast are forecast to remain between 15 and 20 feet.

While the upcoming storm could still produce dangerous conditions along the East Coast, its expected strength and impacts are significantly different from those of Sandy.

Superstorm Sandy was a historic tropical cyclone that formed in the central Caribbean on Oct. 22, 2012, before intensifying into a hurricane as it tracked north toward the U.S., passing over Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas.

Sandy transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone just before making landfall near Atlantic City, New Jersey, on the evening of Oct. 29, 2012.

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The New York City tri-state area and Jersey Shore were struck by the storm's core, but Sandy's impacts extended thousands of miles from its center.

Kings Point, New York, on the north shore of Long Island, recorded a massive storm surge of 12.65 feet. In Manhattan, the water level at The Battery climbed to nearly 14 feet.

Closer to Sandy's landfall location, the casino-lined boardwalk in Atlantic City suffered significant damage as nearly 9 feet of water inundated the barrier island.

The iconic boardwalk in Seaside Heights, New Jersey, was also destroyed after it was unable to withstand Sandy's intense storm surge, with sections collapsing into the ocean.

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By the time the storm had dissipated, Sandy had killed 159 people and caused billions of dollars in damage across the Caribbean and the U.S.

The storm was ranked as one of the deadliest billion-dollar weather disasters to hit the U.S.