Closely watched hurricane forecast gets update from experts at CSU
August begins what is typically the busiest stretch for the Atlantic hurricane season. Several areas are being monitored for the possibility of development.
Bryan Norcross: No change in hurricane season outlook; Southeast on alert for area to watch
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross breaks down the latest hurricane season outlook from Colorado State University and the area to watch off the Southeast Coast.
BOULDER, Colo. – Experts at Colorado State University (CSU) said in an update Wednesday that an above-average Atlantic hurricane season is still expected.
CSU forecasters stuck with the slightly reduced outlook they issued in July in their August update – 16 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes and three of those reaching major status of Category 3 or higher.
HURRICANES EXPLAINED: CATEGORY 1 | CATEGORY 2 | CATEGORY 3 | CATEGORY 4 | CATEGORY 5
Updated hurricane season forecast from CSU.
(FOX Weather)
"We have maintained our forecast for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season, although noting lower-than-normal confidence with this outlook," forecasters wrote in the update.
The primary driver behind keeping the above-average forecast is unusually warm water across the eastern and central Atlantic Basin, forecasters said. That, coupled with an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the neutral position, typically leads to an active hurricane season.
WHY THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS KNOWN AS THE 'HURRICANE GRAVEYARD'
Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
(FOX Weather)
What’s giving CSU forecasters pause, however, is high levels of wind shear – changing wind direction and/or speed with height – being seen in the Caribbean Sea.
"Typically, high levels of Caribbean shear in June–July are associated with less active hurricane seasons," forecasters wrote.
CSU forecasters also said the U.S. coastline has an above-average chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall this season.
Early on September 12, 2018, astronaut Alex Gerst shot this photograph of Hurricane Florence's eye as viewed from the International Space Station.
(NASA)
Activity ticking up in Atlantic
August begins what is typically the most active stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season. This builds to a peak on Sept. 10 before falling off in October.
Right on schedule, several areas of possible tropical development have emerged this week in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Dexter gained a little steam Wednesday as it rushed away from the U.S. Forecasters have also been monitoring not only an area off the Southeast coast but also an area in the central Atlantic.
Hurricane season runs until Nov. 30.
YOUR 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TOOLKIT
(FOX Weather)