Deadly Tropical Storm Melissa expected to rapidly intensify into major hurricane this weekend

Jamaica braces for impact from potentially catastrophic Melissa

FOX Weather's Robert Ray reports live from Kingston where the island is preparing for an onslaught of 15-25 inches of rain, days of damaging winds and 7-11 feet of storm surge as Melissa drifts toward the island.

KINGSTON, Jamaica – Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane, or Category 4 or higher, this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

The storm has already turned deadly in Haiti as millions of people there, in Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic prepare for days of torrential rain, strong wind gusts and potentially catastrophic flooding from the soon-to-be hurricane.

Haiti's Civil Protection Agency confirmed a landslide in Fontamara, a commune of Port-au-Prince, left two people dead on Thursday, and a falling tree killed a man in his 70s in Marigot during flooding on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said Friday that this could be a historically devastating storm for Jamaica as the forecast remains for Melissa to eventually strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane in the central Caribbean. 

"It’s increasingly likely that Jamaica will experience long-duration impacts from likely-Hurricane Melissa like no storm they’ve encountered in modern times," warned Norcross. "Even if Melissa’s strongest winds stay offshore, and there’s no guarantee that that will happen, three or four days of relentless, heavy rain and gusty winds appear likely."

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The NHC said Melissa conditions will soon turn ripe for explosive development. The storm will become a hurricane by Saturday and intensify into a Category 4 hurricane with 130-mph winds as early as Sunday night.

Bryan Norcross on potential Melissa impacts on Jamaica

Jamaica is bracing for potential impacts from Melissa as the storm trudges through the Caribbean. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross breaks down what those impacts could be and the science behind Melissa's development.

"South of Jamaica, the Caribbean water is extraordinarily warm, and the atmospheric pattern is forecast to be conducive to dramatic, rapid strengthening of the system," Norcross said. "The current consensus track shows an extreme threat to the Kingston metropolitan area from flooding rain, wind, and storm surge."

The NHC said that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Jamaica and Haiti starting on Saturday.

"Unfortunately, it is becoming increasingly likely that Melissa will become a large and dangerous hurricane by the end of the forecast period," the NHC said. 

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Jamaica gets ready for future Hurricane Melissa

The Meteorological Service of Jamaica issued a Hurricane Warning for Jamaica on Friday night as the island prepares for the arrival of the potentially catastrophic hurricane.

The Jamaican government said that it activated the country's emergency operation center and emergency generators, medical supplies and fuel are in place ahead of the storm.

"We have over 50 generators ready to go and to be deployed so that within 72 hours of a storm, 80% of NWC customers will be able to get back portable water," Matthew Samuda, Minister of Water, Environment and Climate Change, said during a Friday press conference. "This is a marked difference from the last time around."

Officials said they would likely close the country's airports as soon as deteriorating conditions became imminent. In addition, all schools are going to remote learning.

The Jamaica Met Service noted that soils are saturated from prior rain events, which could lead to mudslides as heavy rain from Melissa moves over the area.

FOX Weather Correspondent Robert Ray is in Kingston as the island prepares for the storm, but worries the calm weather and seas Saturday morning may be giving a false sense of security. 

"There is some nervousness going on, but people are trying to begin their Saturday as if nothing is happening," Ray said while standing on the Caribbean's shores in Kingston as residents fished behind him. "That's a bit of a problem, because I'm just not 100% clear that the folks here... fully understand what is going on it the Caribbean Sea."

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According to the FOX Forecast Center, some places in Jamaica could receive more than 2 feet of rain through next Wednesday, as Melissa meanders and intensifies in the Caribbean Sea.

In the Dominican Republic, officials said they had suspended work from 1 p.m. local time Wednesday through Thursday in major cities across the region, including Santo Domingo.

Where is Tropical Storm Melissa?

Tropical Storm Melissa is currently located about 235 miles to the southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and about 155 miles to the southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, according to the latest information from the NHC.

Melissa has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph with some higher gusts, according to the NHC. Tropical-storm-force winds extend 140 miles from the storm's center.

According to the NHC, Hurricane Hunters report Melissa is now drifting northwestward, with a turn to the general west forecast for Saturday.

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"From Sunday until Tuesday, a strong Hurricane Melissa looks likely to be in the vicinity of Jamaica," Norcross said. "This could be an extreme situation with relentless torrential rain and strong wind impacting the island."

BRYAN NORCROSS: CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN FROM MELISSA

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The NHC said 8-14 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, could fall in southern areas of the Dominican Republic, southern Haiti and eastern Jamaica just through Sunday, then depending on where Melissa tracks, its strength and how fast it moves, localized areas could potentially see several feet of rain into early next week.

That heavy rain is also raising fears of significant flash flooding, mudslides and landslides in areas of higher terrain.

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Puerto Rico will remain on the periphery of the storm’s influence but will likely experience a steady flow of moisture rotating into Melissa. Residents should monitor flood alerts issued by the National Weather Service in San Juan.

Swells generated by Tropical Storm Melissa will also spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba over the next few days, leading to large waves and rip currents at local beaches.

Where is Tropical Storm Melissa going?

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Computer forecast models have come into better agreement that Tropical Storm Melissa will track south of Jamaica and Haiti, with those countries being on the strong side of the storm for several days as Melissa potentially rapidly intensifies into a hurricane.

From there, most models have Tropical Storm Melissa making a turn to the north, some over Jamaica and Cuba, and others have the storm moving northward closer to Hispaniola before tracking out to sea.

This satellite image shows Tropical Storm Melissa in the Caribbean on Oct. 22, 2025.

(NOAA)

If the storm becomes a major hurricane while it sits over the Caribbean, that could lead to additional catastrophic impacts.

"Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in Jamaica by Friday or Saturday," the NHC warned.