Alvin quickly unraveling as new area to watch forms in Eastern Pacific
The National Hurricane Center has also designated a new area to watch. It's located in a very similar spot to where Tropical Storm Alvin once was, south of Mexico near the Mexican and Guatemalan border.
Alvin weakens but moisture shield moves inland
Even though Alvin will soon not be a trackable entity, it doesn't mean impacts will cease along the eastern Pacific.
Alvin is unraveling quickly as it churns up large swells towards portions of western mainland Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula, bringing an increased risk of life-threatening rip currents.
The FOX Forecast Center said land impacts are expected to be minimal as it treks over much cooler water and encounters hostile winds aloft.
Alvin's winds peaked at 60 mph on Thursday after the storm formed in the Eastern Pacific south of Mexico the day prior, becoming the first named storm of the 2025 hurricane season.
Just because the center of circulation is weakening it doesn't mean impacts will cease, with scattered showers likely to impact Mexico and the Desert Southwest over the next few days.
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Watching for additional tropical development
The NHC has also designated a new area to watch. It's located in a very similar spot to where Alvin once was, south of Mexico near the Mexican and Guatemalan border. Currently, it has a low chance of developing within the next 7 days. An area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week.
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross explained that Alvin formed in the Eastern Pacific when hurricane season would typically get going.
"The Eastern Pacific season kicked off right on schedule," Norcross said. "The ocean water off the southern coast of Mexico is always quite warm, and this year the atmospheric pattern over that part of the ocean is quite conducive for development. Alvin has a good chance of intensifying significantly over the open water. As it tracks farther north, however, the water cools quickly. So, if Alvin affects Cabo San Lucas or nearby areas in northern Mexico, for example, it looks likely to be a weakening storm."
The composition of water temperatures in the Eastern Pacific makes the evolution of Alvin a bit complex and will impact future tropical cyclones. There are large pockets of both warmer and cooler water temperatures, meaning that the tropical cyclone’s strength will be determined by its forecast track.
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Systems that move over water with temperatures above 78 degrees Fahrenheit are considered to be in an environment warm enough to support the development of tropical cyclones and their continued strengthening.
In contrast, cooler water temperatures make it more difficult for tropical cyclones to develop and intensify.
Mexico’s National Weather Service forecasts that there will be enough warm water this season to support more tropical cyclones than in a typical year, projecting as many as 18 named storms and 10 hurricanes.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30.