Split in the Polar Vortex could mean one last hurrah for winter across the Northern Tier
Long-range forecast models suggest a split may occur, with cooler air shifting into southern Canada and the Northern Tier by the end of the month.
Eastern US staying cold in February as Polar Vortex weakens
The extreme cold temperatures in the eastern third of the country are sticking around for February. A pattern shift in the Polar Vortex is set to extend the bitter cold the Northeast has been experiencing so far in 2026.
It has been an eventful winter across the U.S., with multiple blizzards, rounds of Arctic air, and snowstorms galore.
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As we approach the end of March, many people may be getting ready for shorts season, but the FOX Forecast Center said a split in the Polar Vortex could bring a cooler end to the month for locations across the Northern Tier of the U.S.
Blizzard conditions seen in Green Bay, Wisconsin, on March 16, 2026. (Brandon Copic / FOX Weather)
Currently, a stronger, consolidated vortex is keeping much of the cold air bottled up near the North Pole.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, long-range forecast models suggest a split may occur, with cooler air shifting into southern Canada and the Northern Tier of the U.S. by the end of the month.
If that happens, portions of New England and the Great Lakes could see temperatures slightly below average through the end of March.
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FOX Weather Correspondent Robert Ray captured this video of howling wind gusts and blinding snow that slammed Marquette, Michigan, Sunday.
While the split appears to be the most likely outcome, it’s still unclear exactly how things will play out. Much depends on where the coldest air ultimately settles.
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At this point, the Upper Midwest and the Northeast could see one final blast of winter before spring comes calling.
People walk along snow covered streets as snow falls during a blizzard on February 23, 2026 in the Flatbush neighborhood of the Brooklyn borough in New York City. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images / Getty Images)
Fortunately for summer lovers, this will likely be the last time the Polar Vortex makes an impact this season.
As we transition from winter into spring, the vortex tends to weaken. The temperature difference between the Arctic and the equator decreases, which reduces the pressure gradient that helps drive the vortex.
So even though this month may be ending a bit frigid, summer is just around the corner.