2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook: Here's how active this year could be without El Nino, La Nina patterns

Hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross analysis of Atlantic hurricane season outlook

FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross provides an exclusive analysis of NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season outlook predicting above-normal tropical activity. NOAA is calling for between 6 to 10 hurricanes this season.

WASHINGTON – Forecasters are closely monitoring global conditions that will influence the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which could range from near-average activity to another more-active-than-average season.

On Thursday, NOAA released its annual outlook for the upcoming hurricane season, predicting 13 to 19 named storms, including six to 10 hurricanes, with three to five expected to become major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

Unlike institutions such as Colorado State University (CSU), which provides specific numbers for each formation category, NOAA issues a range to reflect the uncertainty in long-term forecasting.

2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON GUIDE: HERE’S WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THE TROPICS THIS YEAR

During an average year, the Atlantic Basin sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. NOAA is predicting a 60% chance of an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and a 30% chance of a near-average season.

"This outlook is a call to action: Be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan …" – Ken Graham, NOAA’s National Weather Service Director

CSU’s April outlook projected 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes – a forecast that would make the 2025 season slightly more active than historical averages.

Several global climate phenomena are currently in flux, prompting forecasters to remain cautious and keep expectations broad for what to expect during the 2025 season.

Over the Pacific Ocean, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or what is known as ENSO, has entered a neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña are in control.

ENSO-neutral years are notoriously difficult to predict, producing everything from below-average to hyperactive hurricane seasons, depending on other variables like sea-surface temperatures, wind shear and available moisture.

The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) is from June 1 to Nov. 30. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is Sept. 10. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season.

(FOX Weather)

In the Atlantic, forecasters are also watching an unusual development – cooler tropical water temperatures when compared to the same time last year. 

While the tropical waters still remain well above the long-term average, much of the Main Development Region between Africa and the Caribbean islands has been running approximately 2 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than 2024 levels. 

A stretch of light trade winds could reverse that trend quickly, but so far, the Main Development Region has shown reluctance to warm significantly as summer approaches.

Atlantic Basin water temperatures as of May 21, 2025.

(FOX Weather)

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Adding to the uncertainty are lesser-understood climate variables around the globe.

As of late May, the Northern Hemisphere has yet to see its first tropical storm-strength cyclone of the year, which is more than a month behind typical climatology. 

The last time such a delay happened was in 2024, when a prolonged period of global inactivity threw off many preseason forecasts.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and runs for 183 days through Nov. 30.