Updated 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast maintains above-average predictions fueled by warm ocean temps

Bryan Norcross: No change to hurricane season forecast

FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross explains what led to the latest hurricane forecast from Colorado State University. Norcross warns the current quiet spell does not mean a quiet hurricane season ahead. 

FORT COLLINS, Colo. – Leading hurricane researchers are maintaining their forecast for an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. 

Colorado State University (CSU) said Wednesday that above-average sea-surface temperatures in the subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea were a primary factor in their prediction of nine total hurricanes this year.

2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BRINGS ELEVATED RISK OF MAJOR LANDFALLS, EXPERTS PREDICT

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued by Colorado State University on June 11, 2025.

(FOX Weather)

According to researchers, when the waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are warmer than average in the late spring, they tend to force a weaker subtropical high-pressure system and weaker associated winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. 

"These conditions are anticipated to lead to a continuation of above-average water temperatures across most of the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season," CSU noted in its latest hurricane season outlook.

A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation.

Forecasters noted that current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in the next couple of months. However, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what phase of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) will dominate this summer and fall. 

While the odds of El Niño this hurricane season are low, they are still considerably higher than they were for last year’s hurricane season.

CSU predicts 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes this year

The CSU team is predicting 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. 

Of those 17 storms, researchers forecast nine to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher), with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

HOW TO PREPARE FOR HURRICANE SEASON

(FOX Weather)

CSU said they also take into account analog years from the historical record.

"So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011 and 2021," said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU.

Klotzbach notes that analog seasons had anywhere from above-average to hyperactive Atlantic hurricane activity.

"While the average of our analog seasons had above-average levels of activity, the relatively large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the uncertainty associated with this outlook," he said.

The team predicts that 2025 hurricane activity will be about 125% of the average season from 1991-2020. By comparison, 2024’s hurricane activity was about 130% of the average season. 

The most significant hurricanes of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season were hurricanes Helene and Milton, which combined to cause over 250 fatalities and more than $120 billion in damage in the southeastern U.S.

HURRICANE CATEGORIES EXPLAINED: CATEGORY 1 | CATEGORY 2 | CATEGORY 3 | CATEGORY 4 | CATEGORY 5