Bryan Norcross provides exclusive analysis of Atlantic hurricane season's above-average outlook
Last season, 11 hurricanes formed in the Atlantic Basin during an active and destructive year, with ocean and atmospheric systems conducive to storm development. This year, there is no El Niño or La Niña to consider in the forecast.
Hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross analysis of Atlantic hurricane season outlook
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross provides an exclusive analysis of NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season outlook predicting above-normal tropical activity. NOAA is calling for between 6 to 10 hurricanes this season.
MIAMI – On the heels of NOAA's predictions for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross is using his decades of forecasting experience to explain what this season has in store for the U.S.
On Thursday, NOAA released its annual outlook for the upcoming hurricane season, predicting 13-19 named storms, including six to 10 hurricanes, with three to five expected to become major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
NOAA RELEASES HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2025 ATLANTIC SEASON
Norcross explained that this forecast is above average because, according to data dating back to 1991, an average season sees 14.4 named storms.
Norcorss said the numbers are slightly above average because of a number of factors happening in the global climate.
This graphic shows the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season f=outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University, as well as the average number of storms every year and what we saw in 2024.
(FOX Weather)
This year, there is no El Niño or La Niña climate pattern to consider in the forecast.
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"It's a little surprising, honestly, the list they put there talking about the Pacific and the El Niño, La Niña being in the neutral range," Nocross said after the NOAA announcement. "But they're talking about warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the Atlantic. Well, about half the Atlantic is not really much above normal."
Last season, 11 hurricanes formed in the Atlantic Basin. It was an active and destructive year, with ocean and atmospheric systems conducive to storm development.
This satellite image shows Hurricane Helene.
(NOAA)
"(NOAA forecasters) also talk about the weaker-than-normal trade winds, which are related to the strength of the high-pressure system over the Atlantic," Norcross said. "So that's related to a kind of model forecast, and also how much activity there is in the African monsoon, how much thunderstorm activity develops over the African continent. Those are the seeds that become tropical systems."
2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON GUIDE
With the Atlantic hurricane season beginning June 1, Norcross said right now there is nothing developing in the Atlantic Basin.
"I think this is going to be a year with no preseason activity," Norcross said. "I think we're going to be into June before we get things started this year, based on everything we know right now."