Bryan Norcross: What to expect on the first day of Eastern Pacific hurricane season

Eastern Pacific hurricane season has arrived

Thursday kicks off the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross has a closer look at the current state of the tropics.

Thursday marks the first day of the 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season and FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross is taking a look at the conditions in the Pacific Ocean, and what’s coming up in the Atlantic season, which is two weeks away.

On day one of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, there's not much going on, according to Norcross.

"As you probably expect, no tropical development is expected here over the next seven days in either one of the two basins," Norcross said.

The main factors driving development, or in this case, lack of development, are the wind flow and ocean temperatures. 

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"You see, it's all in a belt down here. That's called the Intertropical Convergence Zone. And here you see the winds coming this way, the Northern Hemisphere, and coming this way in the Southern Hemisphere, and converging in that belt. That's why it's called the Convergence Zone," Norcross said of the temperature map. "Notice it's doing that in both basins here and both oceans, the winds converge. And that's a typical feature. That moves slowly to the north as we get in toward the summer season. So that's where we stand right now, but nothing is forecast to develop out of that."

Norcross said that this year, ocean temperature conditions are considered neutral, as the Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins.

This map shows the current temperatures in the Pacific Ocean on May 15, 2025.

"In neutral years, well, that means we don't have any big forcing from the El Niño or La Niña," Norcross said. "We just take that factor out of play and say, ‘OK. What's going to happen in the hurricane season … is going to all pretty much occur in the Atlantic. It's not going to get pushed into more or less by this El Niño or La Niña in the Pacific."

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The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. Norcross is closely watching ocean temperatures there to see what could be developing early in the season.

Water temperatures in the Pacific as of 5/14/2025.

(FOX Weather)

"Temperatures all the way across the Atlantic, including the Caribbean and the Gulf, are significantly lower than last year," he said. "The water is still going to be plenty warm to support tropical storms and hurricanes. There's no question about that. But when you add a couple, 3, 4 degrees to the water temperature, that's more energy, and therefore weaker storms get stronger, storms tend to develop sooner."

Still, Norcross adds that the water is not significantly cool enough to not expect storms this year.