New area to watch for tropical development highlighted in Atlantic, but prospects uncertain

Bryan Norcross: Hurricane Imelda could strengthen ahead of arrival near Bermuda, Humberto merges with jet stream

FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross provides exclusive analysis of Hurricane Imelda as it approaches Bermuda. Former Hurricane Humberto has merged with a dip in the jet stream over the North Atlantic. That same dip could strengthen Imelda as it impacts Bermuda later Wednesday evening. Both systems will create swells that are generating life-threatening rip currents for the U.S. East Coast.

The National Hurricane Center has highlighted a region stretching from the Caribbean islands eastward into the open Atlantic for the possibility of tropical cyclone development over the next week. However, forecasters caution that there are conflicting signals on whether a disturbance in the area will ever become organized.

The energy that is expected to make up the tropical wave is forecast to leave the coast of Africa by Friday before traversing the Atlantic over the next couple of weeks. 

Due to how much organization the tropical disturbance will need, quick intensification is not expected over the next week, despite warm sea surface temperatures. 

So far, the NHC is simply going with a low chance of development within the next seven days. 

---

 

WHAT TO EXPECT FOR FINAL 2 MONTHS OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

The FOX Forecast Center says it will likely be toward the end of the second week of October when the wave approaches a "fork in the road," determining whether it develops into a storm or fades into disorganized showers.

Computer models remain split on whether the next named storm on the 2025 list, "Jerry," will form out of the broad complex of thunderstorms.

The Global Forecast System, otherwise known as the GFS, continues to show the tropical wave organizing into a cyclone just east of the Caribbean islands. Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which is commonly referred to as the EURO, keeps the system weak and disorganized throughout its lifespan.

The EURO solution would not lead to the formation of a cyclone and would instead produce only periods of increased cloud cover and scattered showers across the islands. 

GFS vs ECMWF for Oct. 9, 2025.

(TropicalTidbits.com / FOX Weather)

It is common for major forecast models to display wide differences during the infancy of a tropical system. 

Over the next several days, forecasters expect the models to gradually converge on a more consistent solution.

A system that tracks closer to the equator has a greater chance of moving farther west across the Atlantic, compared with a system that forms at 20 degrees latitude or farther north.

During October and November, a plethora of troughs and cold fronts frequently sweep across the Atlantic, which can easily recurve tropical cyclones harmlessly into the open ocean. 

Systems that remain farther south, however, may pose more of a concern for the Caribbean and other landmasses.

HURRICANE HUNTERS FLY INTO WORLD’S WORST WEATHER SEE WHICH STORM WAS THE BUMPIEST

It is also important to note that the recent U.S. government shutdown has not impacted the accuracy of models such as the GFS. Essential staff, including Hurricane Hunters and satellite analysts, continue to perform their duties without interruption.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30, and on average, October and November yield about four named storms, with two of those typically reaching hurricane strength and one intensifying into a major hurricane.

2025 Hurricane Season Names

(FOX Weather)