Outlook: What are the chances of a white Christmas around the country?
Historically much of the Northern Tier of the U.S. has had even odds to a higher likelihood of seeing a white Christmas, but this year the outlook is quite different, even after an active start to December.
Temperatures rebound for millions after brutal arctic blast gripped the U.S.
Temperatures are rebounding after bitter cold gripped the country, lifting millions from the single digits into the 40s and 50s as temperatures will read 10 to 15 degrees above average today. The warm-up is brief, however, with cold air returning by Friday.
The holiday season arrived packed with intense weather patterns stretching across the country, impacting millions.
From a coast-to-coast storm that kicked off the month of December, a nor’easter that slammed the East Coast, to the bone-chilling temperatures that have gripped the nation, La Niña, although weak, has not given up this season.
So, will the pattern continue to bring snow lovers a white Christmas this year?
The FOX Forecast Center suggests a limited amount of snow coverage is likely across the country.
This is a different scenario than what most of the U.S. has seen over the past few weeks as snow averages were higher than usual in the Midwest and ski resorts in the Northeast opened early due to the abundance. Chicago even got its earliest extensive snow coverage for the start of the season since 2019.
Snowy scenes throughout Chicago amid first round of clipper system (FOX Weather Correspondent Robert Ray / FOX Weather)
The La Niña winter season has started off with powerful storm systems. The climate pattern typically brings colder conditions, more snow across the Northern Tier and rougher conditions to the Northeast and New England — and the country has seen every bit of it so far.
TRAVEL SNARLED AS FIRST NOR'EASTER OF LA NIÑA WINTER SEASON SLAMS EAST COAST WITH RAIN, ICE AND SNOW
The first nor’easter of La Niña winter brought snow that stretched over 1,500 miles from Missouri to Maine, leaving eight states with over a foot of powder for the first week of December.
Americans were still recovering from the historic post-thanksgiving storm that slammed the nation, so accumulations piled up, bringing many travel concerns from the sky to the roads.
A multi-car pile up in Grant County, Indiana on I-69 resulted in a temporary road closure. (Grant County Sheriff's Office / FOX Weather)
Following that, a disruption in the polar vortex brought on a one-two-punch of arctic blasts that raised safety concerns, as dangerous lows swept across the Midwest and Northeast, causing 150 million Americans to feel below-average temperatures.
Pancake ice surrounding the North Pier Lighthouse on Lake Michigan Dec. 15. (Nate's Dronography via Storyful / FOX Weather)
D.C. ACTIVATES AN 'EXTREME COLD ALERT' AS A NATIONWIDE ARCTIC BLAST PUTS MILLIONS AT RISK
After an active start to the season, things take a turn for Christmas, as much of the country is unlikely to see snow.
The FOX Forecast Center explains that a white Christmas is defined by having at least one inch of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. Christmas morning.
What is considered a White Christmas (FOX Weather)
Historically, much of the Northern Tier of the U.S., such as Northern New England, Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire has had a white Christmas, but this year the outlook is quite different, as the lower 48 is looking at above-average temperatures leading up to and including the holiday itself, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
Historical Chance of White Christmas Overview (FOX Weather)
The FOX Forecast Center uses both the GFS and ECMWF forecast maps for white Christmas outlooks and with the holiday still over a week away, major differences can be seen throughout them. While both models indicate a warmup across the country, snow chances vary, with greater accuracy expected as the holiday nears and the two outlooks potentially coming into better agreement.
ECMWF White Christmas Forecast Outlook (FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
However, comparing both maps to the historical outlook, it can be confirmed by both forecasts that a white Christmas is less likely than in past years.
GFS White Christmas Forecast Outlook (FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
The two maps show certainty of snow for cities such as Minneapolis, Marquette, Burlington, Seattle and Billings, along with other Western regions, while the rest of the two maps disagree on what locations will have likely chances of snow to no chances of snow.
As the holiday nears, more information will become certain between the two outlooks.