Millions under growing threat of potential tornado outbreak from southern Plains to Upper Midwest Monday
The daunting forecast comes as a potent spring storm collects all the ingredients needed for a volatile atmosphere, leading to an intense severe weather outlook that hasn't been seen in some regions in 14 years.
Threat of tornado outbreak grows for Monday across Upper Midwest
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has now issued a Level 4 out of 5 severe weather risk for Monday across cities such as Des Moines and part of the Minneapolis-St. Paul area.
DES MOINES, Iowa – The danger of a widespread tornado outbreak is growing for Monday across the Upper Midwest and into the Southern Plains with threats of multiple, long-track strong tornadoes, extremely large hail and damaging wind gusts.
The daunting forecast comes as a potent spring storm collects all the ingredients needed for a volatile atmosphere, leading to an intense severe weather outlook that hasn't been seen in some regions in 14 years.
The severe weather threat begins late Sunday as the developing storm system moves into Nebraska, triggering supercell development with all severe hazards posing a threat from late afternoon through Sunday evening, according to the FOX Forecast Center. It's likely we'll see ongoing storms overnight Sunday into early Monday morning from the Dakotas into Minnesota.
The air mass explodes to life on Monday as a strong dip in the jet stream will move east from the Rockies. The strong winds of the jet will set up a broad area of strong wind shear, capable of causing storms to rotate.
April 28 Severe Weather Setup
At the surface, an area of low pressure will be moving across the northern Plains, helping transport a surge of moisture that reaches deep into the tropics and pushing into the High Plains. This moisture will lead to an increasingly unstable atmosphere where storms can rapidly form and intensify.
"So, we’re going to see the Gulf of America open for business, but it’s not just there," said FOX Weather meteorologist Bob Van Dillen. "It goes all the way down to the Caribbean, and it pumps it up. The dew point forecast for Minneapolis on Monday afternoon is 63 degrees."
The greatest risk for severe storms should be centered on Iowa and adjacent areas from extreme northeastern Kansas into southeastern Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin, according to the FOX Forecast Center. A cap on the atmosphere – what amounts to an atmospheric lid that suppresses storm development - may initially keep storms at bay, but an intense low-level jet is expected to develop by late Monday afternoon and early evening. This will help provide enough lift to break the cap and initiate storm activity.
Storms that form will have the potential to produce multiple tornadoes – some of which could be at least rated EF-2 or higher on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, with very large hail, and damaging winds.
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Already, nearly 5 million people sit under a Level 4 out of 5 risk on NOAA's Storm Prediction Center severe weather scale, including the cities of St. Paul and Rochester in Minnesota, and Des Moines, Iowa. It is the first time the Upper Midwest has reached that risk level three days in advance since April 2011 according to the National Weather Service office in LaCrosse, Wisconsin.
More than 11 million others sit inside a level 3 risk, including Minneapolis; Madison, Wisconsin; Omaha, Nebraska and Kansas City, Missouri.
Uncertainty remains regarding how far south the severe threat may extend, as capping – what amounts to an atmospheric lid that suppresses storm development - could limit thunderstorm activity in parts of the southern Plains, but the cap is not expected to be a factor north of Interstate 70.
To the south, across eastern Kansas into Oklahoma, and northwest Texas, storm coverage is less certain due to the aforementioned cap. Atmospheric lift will be weaker than to the north, and it may not be strong enough to overcome the capping. Model trends will need to be monitored in the coming days to get a better idea of whether storms will form in this area.
Storms that form in that area have the still have the potential to produce multiple tornadoes, some of which could have EF-2 strength or stronger.
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Severe weather threat shifts east into Ohio Valley, Northeast on Tuesday
The threat of severe weather is also not expected to end Monday.
As the system shifts eastward, additional rounds of thunderstorms will develop on Tuesday, particularly across parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a broad area from the Great Lakes to Texas as being at risk for severe weather.
While upper-level support is expected to weaken somewhat by then, enough instability and wind shear will likely remain in place to support continued threats of hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
Cities such as Detroit, Indianapolis and St. Louis, Missouri, are all included in Tuesday’s threat zone.
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Active Month for Severe Weather
Despite the ongoing rounds of storms, more severe weather chances are expected through the end of the month.
Although specific forecast details remain uncertain, forecasters anticipate the possibility of additional reports of large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.
A seasonal shift in storm activity from the Southeast to the Plains and Midwest is typical during the latter half of meteorological spring.
"We're kind of seeing this late-season shift as we head into May now," said FOX Weather meteorologist Jane Minar. "Severe weather has largely been focused on the Mid-South and Southeast. Now we’re seeing it push back toward the northwest and into the Upper Midwest - Iowa, in particular."
May is typically the most active month for tornadoes, with April and June usually ranking second and third.
During a typical April, about 180 to 200 tornadoes are reported nationwide, but so far in 2025, the SPC has received preliminary reports of more than 250 twisters.
These reports will be reviewed and verified in the coming weeks to determine a final count, but the month will finish above average for activity.
Reports of hailstones so far in the year are closer to average, but accounts of damaging winds are running more than 200% above normal - signaling an especially windy period across the U.S. during the spring.