February outlook: Weakening Polar Vortex to extend extreme cold spell even longer for millions in Eastern US
The combination of a bitter cold January and this pattern could produce one of the coldest winters in years for much of the region, which is all tied back to the weakened Polar Vortex.
February outlook calling for more below-average temperatures across the eastern US
The extreme cold across much of the eastern part of the country is hanging on for February. Areas from the Plains to the Northeast will see below-average temperatures for the month, as a frigid pattern is locked in over the country.
The bitter cold temperatures that have left a chill over the eastern half of the country aren't going anywhere, as a major disruption to the Polar Vortex is coming this month.
While the cold is not new, the Polar Vortex's pattern was different.
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The cold ushered in late January was caused by the vortex remaining strong but displaced over Canada, sending extreme cold into the U.S.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 29: People watch as ice floats cover part of the Hudson River along the Manhattan shoreline as New York City experiences frigid temperatures following a winter storm over the weekend on January 29, 2026, in New York City. New York received up to a foot of snow in a winter storm that swept through large parts of the country, resulting in numerous deaths, power outages, and accidents.
(Spencer Platt / Getty Images)
According to the FOX Forecast Center, this disruption to the Polar Vortex will take the form of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE), which occurs when temperatures high in the atmosphere rise rapidly, weakening or even breaking apart the winds that normally confine cold air near the North Pole.
When this happens, the polar vortex can split or shift, allowing frigid arctic air to spill south into the eastern U.S.
(FOX Weather)
This bout of frigid air will reach the east more often than the last round as the polar vortex weakens, the FOX Forecast Center said.
The Climate Prediction Center's February Temperature Outlook also concurs, showing high confidence for below-average temperatures for the month.
(FOX Weather)
If this forecast holds, the combination of a cold January and this pattern could produce one of the coldest winters in years for much of the region, which is all tied back to the weakened Polar Vortex.
Below-average temperatures are very likely across the Great Lakes, the Northeast and even the Southeast.
Temperatures in the West will remain warmer than average for the month.
NEW YORK, UNITED STATES - JANUARY 29: A person takes the dog for a walk near the river that froze parts of it due to the extreme cold following a snowstorm as cold weather continues in New York, United States, on January 29, 2026.
(Selcuk Acar/Anadolu / Getty Images)
Reflecting on January
January delivered a wild ride of weather, from the extreme cold across the country even stretching into Florida.
Below-average temperatures left cold-stunned iguanas across the Sunshine State, breaking record lows set decades ago.
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A cold-stunned iguana on the ground in North Bay VIllage, Florida on Feb. 1, 2026.
(Jackson Dill / FOX Weather)
The month brought a major winter storm that caused millions to lose power and dropped feet of snow and inches of ice from the Midwest to the Southeast.
Nearly 80 people died from the storm across at least 16 states.
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Image 1 of 4Nashville was slammed by a major winter storm that produced damaging ice storm that has caused thousands of power outages and chaotic travel conditions across the Metro Area. (Yuri Mamchur)
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Image 2 of 4NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - JANUARY 24: Snow falls downtown in the lower Broadway area on January 24, 2026 in Nashville, Tennessee. A massive winter storm is bringing frigid temperatures, ice, and snow to millions of Americans across the nation. ((Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images))
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Image 3 of 4Multiple tractor-trailers jackknifed on a highway in Missouri. (MSHP General HQ)
![Snow covers Little Rock, AR early Saturday.]()
Image 4 of 4Snow covers Little Rock, AR early Saturday. (Phillip Lemley)
Finally, we finished the first month of 2026 with an intense and powerful nor'easter storm that walloped the Southeast, bringing heavy snow to the Carolinas and Virginia.
Historic snowfall was recorded in both North and South Carolina.
Watch: Collapsed house floats in ocean in Buxton during nor'easter
An abandoned beach home collapsed into the ocean on North Carolina's Outer Banks this morning during rough conditions caused by a powerful nor'easter off the coast. This marks the 28th home to collapse into the ocean since 2020 and the first of 2026.
The storm lashed the beaches of the Outer Banks, causing an abandoned beach house in Buxton to collapse into the ocean during hurricane-force winds and large waves.
The nor'easter continued its trek up the East Coast on the first day of February, preparing to brush Massachusetts and southern New England with snow, more winds amid the extreme cold.
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