NOAA vs. farmers almanacs: Whose winter outlook will be right?
A new battle is shaping up between the long-range winter outlooks for this upcoming season. We take a look at what NOAA's predicting versus what both of the farmers almanacs say.
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SILVER SPRINGS, Md. – A new battle is shaping up between the long-range winter outlooks for this upcoming season.
NOAA released its annual winter outlook on Thursday, predicting a colder winter for the northern U.S. while the southern tier will experience a warmer-than-average winter.
NOAA's winter temperature outlook for 2025-26.
(FOX Weather)
This comes weeks after the Old Farmer's Almanac, established in 1792, and The Farmers' Almanac, created in 1818, revealed their own winter forecasts. How do they compare?
In a general sense, the Old Farmer's Almanac said that the winter of 2025-26 will be calm and gentle, while both NOAA and The Farmers' Almanac have similar predictions of a wetter-than-average winter.
Let's dig deeper.
NOAA: Brrr – bundle up in the North
NOAA uses a mix of long-range climate computer models and atmospheric trends, such as the arrival of La Niña, to base its long-range outlooks.
With that, NOAA anticipates a bone-chilling winter for the northern tier and Upper Midwest – meaning the winter could be even more frigid than usual.
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NOAA's seasonal precipitation outlook for December 2025 to February 2026.
(FOX Weather)
"This set of conditions does slightly elevate the potential for colder temperatures in the central and eastern U.S., so also supports favored below-normal temperatures in the Upper Midwest," NOAA forecasters said.
And for others, it might be time to get your umbrella ready. The forecast also indicates wetter-than-average conditions for the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes region and most of Alaska.
At the same time, the La Niña climate pattern will likely cause drier-than-average conditions in the Desert Southwest, Southeast and Gulf Coast.
Drought conditions will affect Texas to California, while the Pacific Northwest could see improving drought with a combination of a wetter- and cooler-than-average winter.
The Farmers' Almanac: This winter season is shaping up to be a wild ride
Both of the almanacs say they use their own proprietary – and secret – formulas to come up with their long-range forecasts. But this year, the forecasts they predicted are nearly the polar opposite.
The Farmers' Almanac 2025-26 winter outlook.
(FOX Weather)
The Farmers' Almanac says this winter season calls for "dramatic swings and widespread winter weather."
It's expected that the northern Plains to New England will experience the coldest temperatures. And the Northwest should prepare for a cold winter as well.
In other areas of the country, like the East Coast, residents should expect significant rain mixed with snow, while the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and north-central states are set for a classic winter wonderland.
"Get ready to ‘chill, snow, repeat,’" The Farmers' Almanac says.
Old Farmer's Almanac: Maybe a winter that will forget to show up?
Unlike NOAA and The Farmers' Almanac, the Old Farmer's Almanac says it will be a calmer, gentler winter.
Temperatures are expected to be slightly milder across the country with extended dry stretches. But the Almanac says some regions should "brace for a sharper chill."
Old Farmer's Almanac 2025-26 winter outlook.
(Old Farmer's Almanac)
"Don’t lose track of your snow shovels and umbrellas," says Editor Carol Connare. "Most areas will experience near-normal to slightly milder temperatures, but from the Appalachians south through the Southeast and Florida, and westward across the Ohio Valley, we’re predicting a colder-than-normal winter."
For now, all we can do is wait to see what the outcome turns out to be.
But maybe start dusting off those snow shovels and grab those winter jackets just in case.