NOAA: Extra northern chills, polar vortex intrusions highlight La Niña-fueled winter outlook
La Nina is here for the winter and its influence is set to bring a chilly and snowy winter to the North, while the South may be in for a mild and drier winter, according to the new NOAA outlook issued Thursday.
The meaning of El Nino and La Nina
The status of whether the world is being impacted by an El Nino or a La Nina is determined by water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. (NOAA)
A cold winter is likely in store for those in the northern U.S., with milder temperatures across the southern tier, according to NOAA’s National Weather Service winter outlook issued Thursday.
The outlook indicates the arrival of a La Niña climate pattern will have a heavy hand in the winter weather patterns from December through February.
After water temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean dropped to 0.5 degrees Celsius below average (-0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) NOAA's National Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña Advisory in October.
Typical La Nina impacts.
LA NIÑA OFFICIALLY ARRIVES. HERE'S WHAT IT MEANS FOR WINTER IN THE US
Who will have bone-chilling cold and snow? The Northern Tier and Upper Midwest are looking at higher confidence of below-average winter temperatures – that means even colder than their typically frigid winters. Forecasts indicate wetter than average conditions for the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes region and most of Alaska.
FILE: Keith Wojciechowski clears his driveway on December 24, 2022 in Hamburg, New York. (Photo by John Normile/Getty Images)
(Getty Images)
Meanwhile, La Niña will influence the continued drier-than-average conditions in the desert Southwest, along the Gulf Coast and Florida to the Carolinas. The outlook favors continued and worsening drought conditions from southern Texas to California, but the Pacific Northwest could see improving drought conditions.
NOAA's winter temperature outlook for 2025-2026.
(FOX Weather)
"A northerly shift in the storm track during the winter months often accompanies La Niña events, so the southern tier of the country is forecast to be warmer and drier than normal," NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s Operational Prediction Branch Chief Jon Gottschalck said.
After back-to-back tropical systems dumping rain along the Eastern Seaboard this summer and fall, a milder-than-average winter could be in store for this region.
NOAA forecasters also indicated in their winter outlook discussion that the current setup for the winter would generally feature a weaker polar vortex, leading to periods of a more "wavy" jet stream that, in turn, would allow more frequent intrusions of arctic air into the middle latitudes.
NOAA's seasonal precipitation outlook for December 2025- February 2026.
(FOX Weather)
"This set of conditions does slightly elevate the potential for colder temperatures in the central and eastern U.S., so also supports favored below-normal temperatures in the upper Midwest," NOAA forecasters said.
NOAA forecasters note that the winter outlook doesn’t predict snowfall, and areas likely to have colder-than-average temperatures can still experience extended periods of bone-chilling cold during the season, as the U.S. saw last year during multiple intrusions of Arctic air.