Odds increase for Invest 98L to develop in the Atlantic as brewing 'Super' El Niño continues to strengthen
This comes as the Atlantic hurricane season is off to its quietest start on record, dating to the beginning of the satellite era (1966), with just 5 named storms and no hurricanes thus far.
Development odds increase for Invest 98L in the Atlantic amid record slow start to hurricane season
Storms in the open Atlantic which are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for tropical development have become slightly better organized, the NHC said.
THE TAKEAWAY:
- Invest 98L is being monitored for tropical development in the open Atlantic.
- 98L now has medium odds of development over the next seven days.
- The Atlantic hurricane season is off to its quietest start on record, dating to the beginning of the satellite era (1960).
Storms in the open Atlantic which are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for tropical development have become slightly better organized, the NHC said. This comes as the Atlantic hurricane season is off to its quietest start on record, dating to the beginning of the satellite era (1966), with just 5 named storms and no hurricanes thus far.
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(FOX Weather)
The NHC designated this area to watch for tropical development as Invest 98L Tuesday morning. The hurricane center is now giving 98L medium odds of development over the next two days, a few hundred miles east of Bermuda.
Unlike the typical tropical disturbances that emerge off the coast of Africa this time of year, this area is located in the subtropical Atlantic.
The subtropical Atlantic lies outside the Main Development Region, or MDR — the primary hurricane belt. That unusual location is part of what makes this area to watch so interesting.
Adding another level of uncertainty, AI and traditional forecast models are still completely split on the future of 98L. While AI models are going aggressive—predicting a strong storm—traditional models show virtually no development at all.
(FOX Weather)
So what happens next?
The system is going to have to wait it out for a few days and try and move west into the more favorable zone for true tropical development.
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(FOX Weather)
Before that can happen, the trough must first cluster enough thunderstorms to carve out a distinct center of low pressure.
Once that well-defined center forms, computer forecast models will gain a much sharper read on the atmospheric environment, finally revealing if the area to watch can capitalize on the atmospheric setup.
(FOX Weather)
"Folks in Bermuda should still keep an eye on it to be sure it doesn't do something unexpected," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said.
There's no indication that 98L could threaten the U.S. Whatever form it takes, it's likely to turn north into the open Atlantic or sit for many days, the FOX Forecast Center said.
The long-range outlook: Central American Gyre
The GFS continues to show an unreliable spin-up of a tropical storm or hurricane hundreds of hours out.
"While this is not a reliable forecast, it does highlight a feature that typically becomes more prevalent in October: the Central American Gyre," the FOX Forecast Center said.
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The Central American Gyre is a sprawling area of low pressure near or over Central America that can produce locally heavy rain, rough surf, and mudslides.
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It is closely monitored because it can aid in tropical cyclone development and is most prevalent during late spring and early fall.
In fact, Idalia (2023) formed because of the Central American Gyre, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
Additionally, the new Climate Prediction Centers 2-week tropical outlook shows the lower end potential for some development off the Southeast Coast and in the eastern portion of the Main Development Region.
The Atlantic stalls at peak season
Typically, El Niño suppresses Atlantic activity by increasing wind shear while having the opposite effect in the Pacific, where warmer ocean temperatures fuel increased activity.
That pattern has already played out across both oceans this year.
Adding to that, forecasts indicate this could be a "super El Niño," potentially making it one of the strongest events on record.
(FOX Weather)
The lack of storm activity has already rewritten history: The Atlantic has now broken the satellite-era record for the latest date without a single hurricane forming in a season.
To put this historic slump into perspective, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. So far, there have been just five named storms, zero hurricanes and zero major hurricanes.
The next named storm in the Atlantic would be Fay.