Bryan Norcross: NOAA updates hurricane season prediction as we watch for potential development in the Pacific
Hawaii has a greater-than-average chance of dealing with a tropical storm or hurricane this year.
FILE: Hurricane season update: Bryan Norcross on 2 named storms and El Niño
HURRICANE HQ 🌀: FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross shares an update on the progress of hurricane season, as experts monitor a strengthening El Niño this week. There have been two named storms so far this season. #Hurricane #Severewx #FOXWeather
The Colorado State University forecasting team led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach released their predictions for the rest of the hurricane season yesterday. They held steady at a total of 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, with 1 of those reaching Category 3 or above.
(FOX Weather)
Dr. Phil will join me this afternoon for a live Hurricane Q&A, and we’ll be taking your questions. Tune in at 4 p.m. ET on YouTube, Facebook, X, Instagram, TikTok, or LinkedIn. We'll be looking forward to hearing from you.
NOAA's update
Government scientists released their final forecast for the hurricane season. Like CSU, they're saying that the odds are high that tropical activity this season will be well below normal. They reduced the possibility of an above-normal season to only a 5% chance.
HOW ARE HURRICANES RATED? THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE EXPLAINED
2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook
(NOAA)
Their ranges encompass the CSU numbers: a total of 7 to 13 named storms and 2 to 6 hurricanes, with 0 to 2 of them reaching at least Category 3 strength.
Their numbers are lower than their May forecast since the certainty that we'll see a strong El Niño is increasing.
The El Niño suppresses tropical development because, among many other effects on the weather around the world, upper-level winds significantly increase over the Caribbean and into the tropical Atlantic. Those winds make it more difficult for tropical systems to develop.
This graphic shows that no tropical development is expected in the next week.
(FOX Weather)
The bottom line is that few if any storms are likely to develop this year in the main tropical-development zone in the Atlantic and Caribbean. If a threatening storm does develop, it's more likely to be in the Gulf or the waters around or east of the Bahamas.
There are plenty of examples of "slow" hurricane seasons that produced damaging storms, however. So we watch and prepare just like always.
In the Pacific
The ocean water in the Eastern and Central Pacific is extremely warm. That means that Hawaii has a greater-than-average chance of dealing with a tropical storm or hurricane this year. Everyone in the islands should be thinking about their hurricane plans.
WHY DON'T HURRICANES STRIKE CALIFORNIA?
The National Hurricane Center is painting two areas to watch for potential development.
Eastern Pacific Basin on August 6, 2026
(Bryan Norcross)
Long-range computer forecast models continue to indicate that there's a decent chance that a tropical system will move over or near the Hawaiian Islands in 9 or 10 days. The system hasn't even formed yet, so the projections are far from set in stone. The better way to think about it is that the weather pattern at the end of next week appears supportive of a storm heading in that general direction.
Stay aware and plan to stay informed.