Atlantic goes more than 300 days without a hurricane as historic drought nears milestone
The Atlantic remains unusually quiet as El Niño-driven winds suppress activity, while Fay barely maintains its tropical characteristics and Invest 91L forms.
First nor'easter of the fall charges North as millions brace for impact
🌧️ EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS: FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross shares his exclusive analysis of the developing Nor'easter barreling across the Mid-Atlantic region and parts of the Northeast, triggering flood advisories. Norcross also touches on Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Nolo and their impacts in the Pacific. Stay with FOX Weather as we continue our coverage of these threats.
THE TAKEAWAY
- The Atlantic remains unusually quiet as El Niño-driven winds suppress activity, with just seven named storms so far.
- The National Hurricane Center has designated Invest 91L and is showing increased signs of development as it quickly moves northeast.
- Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Fay is barely maintaining its tropical characteristics, producing only a few thunderstorms around its center.
It has been over 330 days since the last hurricane formed in the Atlantic, extending the drought as September nears its end without a single hurricane developing in the basin.
The last hurricane to form in the Atlantic was Hurricane Melissa, which developed on Oct. 13, 2025.
HURRICANE POLO EXPECTED TO FUEL SOUTHWEST FLOOD THREAT AMID ACTIVE PACIFIC
The hostile El Niño-driven winds have suppressed activity across the Atlantic this season, with just seven named storms so far.
If September ends without a hurricane, it would mark the eighth time on record since 1850 that the Atlantic has gone without a hurricane during the season, and the second time since the start of the satellite era in 1966.
EL NIÑO JUST BROKE A HISTORIC TEMPERATURE RECORD — AND IT’S STILL INTENSIFYING
If the entire 2026 Atlantic hurricane season ends without a hurricane, it would be only the third time on record, following the hurricane seasons of 1914 and 1917. However, it would be the first time this has happened in the modern era.
Latest date of first hurricane formation. (FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
Invest 91L
On Saturday, the National Hurricane Center designated an area to watch in the central subtropical Atlantic, several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda, for a non-tropical area of low pressure.
The system has since been designated Invest 91L and is showing increased signs of development as it quickly moves northeast.
The disturbance is currently located about 1,100 miles east of the Outer Banks and is producing 30- to 35-mph wind gusts, along with a sharp shift in wind direction, according to recent satellite-derived data.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the system lacks the closed circulation needed to be classified as a tropical depression. However, development may not be far off, as Invest 91L moves through an environment of low to moderate wind shear of 15 to 20 knots and waters around 80 degrees.
The favorable conditions have prompted the National Hurricane Center to raise its chances for development over the next 48 hours.
Eventually, the system is expected to arc around the periphery of an area of high pressure to the south.
Long-range forecasts indicate that Invest 91L could potentially become Tropical Storm Hannah as early as Monday or Tuesday.
Toward the end of the week, an incoming trough is expected to dramatically increase wind shear, likely causing the system to weaken as it approaches the Azores.
For now, Invest 91L shows no signs of becoming a hurricane.
Tropical Depression Fay
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Fay is barely maintaining its tropical characteristics, producing only a few thunderstorms around its center.
The FOX Forecast Center notes that the system's track remains uncertain. Fay is currently moving southward into increasingly warmer water, but strong wind shear and dry mid-level air continue to hinder the system and prevent it from becoming more organized.
For now, Fay is expected to remain a weak depression before dissipating within the next three to five days. The system poses no threat to land.
Fay first became a tropical depression on Sept. 19 and strengthened into a tropical storm on Sept. 20 before weakening into a post-tropical cyclone on Sept. 23.
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On Sept. 24, Fay regained tropical storm status despite encountering an area of increased wind shear.
As a result, Fay has become the longest-lived storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
Stay with FOX Weather for the latest.