Tropical Storm Polo to rapidly intensify, fuel Southwest flood threat amid hyperactive Pacific tropics
This comes amid a rapidly strengthening El Niño which has supercharged the Pacific, producing 18 named storms across both the Central and Eastern parts of the basin with more than two months remaining in the hurricane season.
Tropical Storm Polo to rapidly intensify into major hurricane and fuel U.S. Southwest flood threat
Tropical Storm Polo formed late Sunday off southwestern Mexico, and is expected to rapidly intensify into a hurricane by late Monday with moisture from Polo forecast to enhance the flood threat across the U.S. Southwest beginning Tuesday.
THE TAKEAWAY
- Tropical Storm Polo to rapidly intensify into major hurricane; its moisture will fuel a dangerous New Mexico flood threat beginning Tuesday.
- Remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E expected to redevelop and bring more heavy rain to Hawaii, which rarely sees tropical activity.
- Eastern and Central Pacific have produced 18 named storms combined this season amid rapidly strengthening El Niño.
Tropical Storm Polo formed late Sunday off southwestern Mexico, and is expected to rapidly intensify into a hurricane by late Monday with moisture from Polo forecast to enhance the flood threat across the U.S. Southwest beginning Tuesday.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now monitoring four areas of tropical activity across the Pacific, including Polo.
(FOX Weather)
This comes amid a rapidly strengthening El Niño which has supercharged the Pacific, producing 18 named storms across both the Central and Eastern parts of the basin with more than two months remaining in the hurricane season.
Polo to rapidly intensify into major hurricane, enhance flood threat across US Southwest
Tropical Storm Polo is currently about 200 miles southwest of cities along Mexico's southwest coast, and is moving northeast at 5 mph, with sustained winds of 65 mph, according to the NHC.
While it will not make landfall anywhere near the U.S., moisture from Polo is already streaming into the Southwest and is expected to enhance monsoon thunderstorms over New Mexico, beginning Tuesday.
LATEST FROM FOX WEATHER HURRICANE SPECIALIST BRYAN NORCROSS
Polo is expected to make a sharp turn northwest, away from the Mexican coast by late Tuesday, but not before bringing destructive hurricane-force winds, coastal storm surge and torrential rain capable of triggering catastrophic mudslides to Mexico's southwestern and west-central coasts.
(FOX Weather)
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Tecpan De Galeana to Punta San Telmo.
According to the NHC, Polo is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane (Category 3+) by Wednesday as it parallels the Mexican coast.
Polo may not ever make a true landfall along the coast; currently, many forecast models have Polo's center staying away from land and eventually moving out into the open Pacific.
(FOX Weather)
However, Polo's moisture is fueling a dangerous flood threat over the Southwest, just a week after flooding enhanced by a different tropical disturbance killed three people near Newcomb, New Mexico.
Monsoon thunderstorms are expected to break out Tuesday through Thursday, primarily across New Mexico.
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"Widespread heavy rainfall will lead to a risk of life-threatening flash flooding across much of the state," the National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque said.
The Maricopa County Sheriff's Office deployed a helicopter to rescue two motorists stranded in floodwater on Sept. 16.
(Goodyear Fire Department)
A Level 3 out of 4 flash flood threat covers parts of southern New Mexico on Tuesday, including Las Cruces.
The Level 3 flood threat will shift north and east on Wednesday, covering Roswell, with heavy rain expected across Albuquerque as well.
Southwest Rain Forecast.(FOX Weather)
Moisture from Tropical Storm Odalys could also reach the Southwest
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Odalys is churning in the open Pacific, more than 1,000 miles southwest of Baja California. Odalys currently has sustained winds of 45 mph and is expected to gradually strengthen into a hurricane by midweek.
Odalys is forecast to turn back in the direction of Mexico towards the end of the workweek.
(FOX Weather)
Depending on Polo's track, the two storms could begin to interact and may bring additional moisture into the Southwest.
"Some computer forecasts show Odalys interacting with Polo in some fashion in several days," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said.
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"If predictions are right, Polo will be the stronger storm and will dominate, but each can still influence the track of the other, which adds uncertainty to the forecast," he continued.
Remnants of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E could redevelop, bringing another Hawaii flood threat
Hawaii, which generally doesn't see much tropical activity, could see another tropical system after being impacted by three systems this season, including destructive Hurricane Lowell.
(FOX Weather)
The remnants of former Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located well east-southeast of Hawaii, are moving towards the state.
Conditions are becoming more likely that Fifteen-E will redevelop into at least a tropical depression. Even if this system does not fully reorganize into a tropical depression or named storm, it will still bring heavy rain across the islands starting Wednesday, the FOX Forecast Center said.
A man watches debris flow along Ka'alaiki Road after Hurricane Lala in Naalehu, Hawaii, Monday, Aug. 17, 2026. The Category 1 hurricane brought heavy rain and strong winds to the island of Hawaii before moving away without making landfall, causing extensive damage to towns along the island's southern end.
(Stephen Lam/San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images / Getty Images)
The heaviest rain is expected to begin across the Big Island, parts of which were ravaged by Hurricane Lala, late Thursday.
Between 8 and 12 inches of rain could fall through the weekend over the Big Island, including Hilo. Wind gusts could also reach between 30 and 40 mph as this system makes a close approach.
(FOX Weather)
Rest of the basin
Meanwhile, the NHC is monitoring an area to watch for tropical development south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, several hundred miles southwest of Polo. It's being given medium odds of developing over the next seven days.
Check back for updates on this developing story.