Odds for possible tropical development in the Atlantic fall to low amid brewing 'Super' El Niño
Later this week, the area to watch could move into a brief window of more favorable conditions, though development odds remain low over the next seven days.
Atlantic tropical development odds sink back to low
The Atlantic quiet streak could continue as tropical development odds sink back to low. FOX Weather Meteorologists Craig Herrera and Britta Merwin break down the current outlooks and the disturbance's complicated future:
THE TAKEAWAY:
- An area to watch is being monitored in the subtropical Atlantic.
- The area to watch has low odds of development over the next seven days.
- There is no threat to the U.S. at this time, but Bermuda should continue to monitor the area for potential developments.
An area to watch is being monitored in the Atlantic. Unlike the typical tropical disturbances that emerge off the coast of Africa this time of year, this area is located in the subtropical Atlantic.
The subtropical Atlantic lies outside the Main Development Region, or MDR — the primary hurricane belt. That unusual location is part of what makes this area to watch so interesting.
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Later this week, it could move into a brief window of more favorable conditions, though odds remain low for development over the next seven days.
Adding another level of uncertainty, AI and traditional forecast models are completely split on the new area to watch. While AI models are going aggressive—predicting a strong storm—traditional models show virtually no development at all.
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Image 1 of 2Traditional forecast models for the area to watch in the Atlantic (FOX Weather)
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Image 2 of 2AI forecast models for the area to watch in the Atlantic (FOX Weather)
According to the FOX Forecast Center, "What is making this so complicated for the forecast models is that the area to watch in its current form really is not even considered a tropical disturbance. It is a large, inverted trough of low pressure with really only some subtropical characteristics."
So what happens next?
The system is going to have to wait it out for a few days and try and move west into the more favorable zone for true tropical development.
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Before that can happen, the trough must first cluster enough thunderstorms to carve out a distinct center of low pressure.
Once that well-defined center forms, computer forecast models will gain a much sharper read on the atmospheric environment, finally revealing if the area to watch can capitalize on the atmospheric setup.
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For now, it's just something to keep an eye on, especially in Bermuda. There's no indication that it could threaten the U.S. Whatever form it takes, it's likely to turn north into the open Atlantic or sit for many days, the FOX Forecast Center said.
The long-range outlook: Central American Gyre
The GFS continues to show an unreliable spin-up of a tropical storm or hurricane hundreds of hours out.
"While this is not a reliable forecast, it does highlight a feature that typically becomes more prevalent in October: the Central American Gyre," the FOX Forecast Center said.
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The Central American Gyre is a sprawling area of low pressure near or over Central America that can produce locally heavy rain, rough surf, and mudslides.
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It is closely monitored because it can aid in tropical cyclone development and is most prevalent during late spring and early fall.
In fact, Idalia (2023) formed because of the Central American Gyre, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
Additionally, the new Climate Prediction Centers 2-week tropical outlook shows the lower end potential for some development off the Southeast Coast and in the eastern portion of the Main Development Region.
The Atlantic stalls at peak season
Typically, El Niño suppresses Atlantic activity by increasing wind shear while having the opposite effect in the Pacific, where warmer ocean temperatures fuel increased activity.
That pattern has already played out across both oceans this year.
Adding to that, forecasts indicate this could be a "super El Niño," potentially making it one of the strongest events on record.
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The lack of storm activity has already rewritten history: The Atlantic has now broken the satellite-era record for the latest date without a single hurricane forming in a season.
To put this historic slump into perspective, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. So far, there have been just five named storms, zero hurricanes and zero major hurricanes.