Fall foliage forecast: Why some areas might experience a spotty season

THE TAKEAWAY

• The Farmers’ Almanac has released an early estimate of when fall foliage could peak across the U.S.
• The Central Appalachians are looking promising.
• Parts of the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest and southern tier could see more spotty foliage.

Fall is almost here, and that means the countdown to peak fall foliage is officially underway.

While millions of leaf-peepers will soon be searching for the best spots to catch vibrant shades of red, orange and yellow, not every part of the country is expected to have a standout season.

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The Farmers’ Almanac, known for its long-range seasonal predictions, has released an early estimate of when fall foliage could peak across the U.S. 

The Central Appalachians are looking promising, while much of the East and Southeast should see generally good color.

However, parts of the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest and Southern Tier could see more spotty foliage this year.

What makes a great foliage season?

The Farmers’ Almanac notes that several factors can determine which areas have the best leaf-peeping season.

Healthy trees heading into fall, adequate moisture throughout the summer, cool nights and sunny days in early autumn can all help produce vibrant fall colors.

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Drought and extreme weather stress, however, can have the opposite effect.

When trees have enough moisture, they can hold onto their leaves longer and produce stronger colors. But drought, excessive heat and other stressors can cause leaves to turn early, become brown or even drop before changing color.

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As a result, recent weather patterns across the country could play a major role in determining which areas see the best fall foliage this year.

The best areas for leaf-peeping

The central Appalachian corridor is expected to be one of the standout regions for fall foliage this year.

This area includes parts of West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, Western Virginia and surrounding higher elevations.

These areas often perform well during the fall thanks to their elevation, healthy moisture levels and large, continuous forests. The region has also experienced less summer stress overall compared with some other parts of the country.

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If early fall brings the classic pattern of warm, sunny days and cool, crisp nights, the central Appalachians could put on one of the most vivid foliage displays in the country.

Another region to keep an eye on is much of the East. The Farmers’ Almanac places large portions of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and Southeast in its "good" foliage category, meaning many areas could see a satisfying fall color season.

This includes the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and much of New England.

Many of these areas have received enough moisture during the growing season to support healthy trees while avoiding the prolonged and severe drought conditions seen in some other regions.

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As temperatures begin to cool, these areas could also see a great setup for vibrant fall colors.

Which areas will have a fair or mixed leaf-peeping season?

According to the Farmers’ Almanac, parts of the interior West, Northern Plains, central U.S., Great Lakes and northern New England could have a more hit-or-miss leaf-peeping season.

Some locations may still see beautiful fall color, particularly at higher elevations or in areas that receive more favorable summer moisture. However, the display may not be as widespread or long-lasting.

Inconsistent rainfall, localized drought stress, summer heat and the potential for early leaf drop could all contribute to a more mixed season.

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In the interior West, elevation and local moisture will be important. One mountain valley could have a strong foliage display while nearby, drier basin struggles.

While much of New England is expected to have a good foliage season, northern New England, particularly Maine, could see more variable conditions this year.

Where are the good zones?

The Farmers’ Almanac said good zones will be seen across the Rockies and nearby interior terrain, including parts of Colorado and New Mexico.

Not all western foliage follows the same pattern. In these areas, higher elevations, cooler nights and pockets of more favorable moisture could still produce impressive displays, particularly among aspen trees.

Elevation can help offset summer heat, while areas that received better moisture may have healthier trees heading into fall. As a result, even within regions expected to have a more mixed season overall, there could be pockets that deliver a standout show.

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The worst areas for fall foliage

The Pacific Northwest is expected to face some challenges this fall, with dry and drought conditions potentially taking a toll on trees.

Trees under significant summer stress may shut down earlier, causing leaves to brown or fade before reaching their full color potential. The foliage display could also be brief and inconsistent, particularly in the lower elevations.

The Upper Midwest could face similar issues. Trees that have endured periods of dry weather or heat stress can struggle to produce even, vibrant color.

Leaves may turn duller or drop earlier than usual, making it harder for the region to experience a long-lasting peak.

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Local conditions could make a big difference, but some areas may still see pockets of beautiful color despite the outlook.

Finally, much of Texas and the western Gulf Coast region is expected to have a poor or spotty foliage season this year.

In southern climates, fall color tends to be more variable to begin with. Add in heat, dryness and drought stress, and the display could be even more limited.

These conditions can make leaves more likely to brown, fade or fall quickly, while a lack of cool temperatures can limit the development of vibrant autumn colors.

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That doesn’t rule out localized pockets of foliage, especially in river valleys or better-watered areas, but the broader regional outlook is not especially strong.