Researchers keeping close eye on multiple factors that could influence hurricane season
Of initial interest, while plenty of warm water currently exists throughout the Gulf and the Caribbean, the water in the eastern Atlantic is cooler than it was this time last year.
Possible factors at play as hurricane season nears
Jill Trepanier, LSU professor and hurricane climatologist, provided insight on what this year's hurricane season may have in store, any possible impact from El Nino or La Nina, and the role of Saharan dust in hurricane formation.
With hurricane season on the horizon, researchers say they are keeping a close eye on a number of factors that could influence whether this hurricane season will brew up much tropical activity.
One of those factors is the sea surface temperature, which is among the primary fuels for tropical development. Of initial interest, while plenty of warm water currently exists throughout the Gulf and the Caribbean, the water in the eastern Atlantic is cooler than it was this time last year, according to LSU professor and hurricane climatologist Jill Trepanier.
SOMETHING A BIT UNUSUAL IS HAPPENING IN THE TROPICS LESS THAN A MONTH UNTIL HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS
"A lot of that has to do with the Bermuda High and trade winds really pushing warm ocean water to the west, and leaving upwelling from colder ocean water on the eastern side," Trepanier said.
Hurricane Beryl (CIRA / RAAM-B / NOAA)
She noted that, while these conditions might not directly contribute to tropical development that will impact the Gulf and eastern coastlines, they may affect the development of storms near Africa. And it could warm the waters closer to home.
"Because that warm water that would normally sit over the Main Development Region is being pushed closer to mainland (U.S.) and that's something that we want to be mindful of," Trepanier said.
WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE?
Neutral year implications on the tropics
Another factor to consider in the upcoming tropical season is that this will be an ENSO-neutral year. This means that neither El Niño, which is known to inhibit tropical development, nor La Niña, which can promote tropical development, will play much of a role.
"The neutral (ENSO) effectively means that things are just kind of, well, regular, kind of normal," she said. "And with that in mind, we can get really extreme events that happen in those years, even when the setup isn't exactly prime time. So I think it's important to keep an eye out, especially for those storms that form really close to a coastline, because they will have the energy available, and it won't necessarily matter whether El Niño or La Niña is in effect."
Model ENSO forecast from February 2025. (FOX Weather)
What about the Saharan Dust Layer?
Lastly, a factor that is a bit up in the air is Saharan dust, which blows off of the Saharan desert and into the Atlantic. Trepanier said it has the potential to limit tropical development as the dust sucks up the moisture tropical storms require to form.
"I think what's important to realize is because those same winds that are pulling that warm ocean water to the west are going to be the same winds that impact the Sahara and pull that dust to the west as well," Trepanier said. "And if we do have dust present, it's likely to inhibit some formation of tropical cyclones and hurricanes in that space."
Currently, the forecast models are conflicting about how much Saharan dust will play a role during hurricane season.
"We’ll certainly keep an eye on it," Trepanier said.
The official start date for hurricane season is June 1, and the season runs through Nov. 30.