Thanksgiving outlook: Multiple El Niño-fueled storms could disrupt holiday travel for millions
Widespread rainfall will fall across the Central and Eastern U.S. early Thanksgiving week, while Pacific storms will bring precipitation to the West Coast.
El Niño-fueled storms could alter Thanksgiving plans this year
THANKSGIVING WEEK WEATHER OUTLOOK: The holiday season is finally upon us as Thanksgiving approaches, with rain chances dampening plans for parts of the Central and Eastern U.S. early in the week leading up to Thanksgiving Day.
THE TAKEAWAY
- Rain will fall across the Central and Eastern U.S. early Thanksgiving week, while Pacific storms will bring precipitation to the West Coast.
- By Thanksgiving weekend, the wet weather will shift to the south.
- In addition to the potential storms, there will be above-average temperatures for the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northern Tier of the country.
The holiday season is finally upon us as millions of Americans prepare to travel for Thanksgiving, but not without the risk of wet weather leading up to the big day.
Meteorologists at the FOX Forecast Center have narrowed down a weather pattern that could impact millions of Americans, as forecast models show an active southern jet stream sending multiple rounds of severe weather across the U.S.
Widespread rainfall will fall across the Central and Eastern U.S. early Thanksgiving week, while Pacific storms will bring precipitation to the West Coast.
By Thanksgiving weekend, the wet weather will shift to the south.
This comes as El Niño is helping shape the jet stream as the country heads toward winter, creating favorable wetter conditions across the South, while northern areas could experience warmer and drier weather.
There will be plenty of opportunities for severe weather to pop up as a result during Thanksgiving week.
(FOX Weather)
Starting Monday through Wednesday of Thanksgiving week, a storm system moving across portions of the Central and Eastern U.S. could bring rain stretching from the Mississippi and Ohio valleys toward the Great Lakes and Eastern Seaboard.
Pacific storms will bring at least one round of rain to Washington, Oregon and California, with a chance of mountain snow across the Cascades and Sierra Nevada.
By Thanksgiving, the same early-week storm will shift out of the East Coast, allowing dry conditions to settle across portions of the Northeast, Great Lakes and Northern Great Plains.
The storm system will shift south, where severe storms could sweep across Texas, the Gulf Coast, and parts of the Southeast.
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Plymouth, MA - November 22: Spectators wear rain gear during the annual Plymouth Thanksgiving Parade on November 22, 2025.
(John Tlumacki/The Boston Globe / Getty Images)
"Rain chances may increase across these areas during Thanksgiving and the following weekend, potentially extending northward toward the Mid-Atlantic depending on individual storm tracks," said the FOX Forecast Center.
In addition, Pacific storms could bring more rain to the West Coast and snow to higher elevations across the mountains.
It’s too early to tell if bad weather could affect people traveling home after the holiday, but this system could organize into significant storms.
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Roads were slick for the busy Thanksgiving travel season following the first major rainstorm of the 2019-2020 rainy season in the San Francisco Bay Area, San Ramon, California, November 27, 2019.
(Smith Collection/Gado / Getty Images)
Thanksgiving week temperatures
Along with the potential storms, there will be a temperature divide in the week leading up to the holiday, with above-average warmth across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes and Northern Tier of the country.
Meanwhile, people across the Southwest, Southern Rockies, Southern Great Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley will experience below-average temperatures throughout the week, as a cold front brings large day-to-day changes.
The odds of a white Thanksgiving are best in Montana, Idaho, Wyoming and Colorado, where some locations have a greater than 70-90% historical chance of having snow on the ground for Thanksgiving.
(FOX Weather)
Northern Minnesota, Northern Wisconsin, Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, and Northern New England have favorable odds for snow.
This is quite the opposite of what Americans in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes will experience, as weather trends point to an unseasonably warm holiday just after a week-long cold spell.
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Stay with FOX Weather as we continue to monitor and update the expected weather conditions leading up to the holiday weekend.