Monsoon rain to soak parched Southwest, but it won't be enough to erase extreme drought
Flooding is a concern, but the rainfall will be beneficial for many cities across the region. The FOX Forecast Center said that more than 25 cities across the Southwest are currently experiencing one of their top-five driest years on record, with much of the region in severe to exceptional drought.
Monsoon rain to soak Southwest before shifting to Plains
After a nearly non-existent start to monsoon season in the Southwest, flooding rain is expected to return this week. FOX Weather Meteorologist Michael Estime has the latest forecast on Aug. 24, 2025.
PHOENIX – After a nearly nonexistent start to the monsoon season in the parched Southwest, flooding rain is expected to return as we close out the weekend and welcome a new workweek.
The FOX Forecast Center said that as a ridge of high pressure shifts toward the Great Basin and Four Corners region, a surge of monsoonal moisture will push westward into more interior portions of the interior Colorado River basin.
(FOX Weather)
And with some rising moisture levels and scorching temperatures, widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon hours across the Southwest.
And while flooding is a concern, the rainfall will be beneficial for many cities across the region.
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(FOX Weather)
"It’s a story of feast to famine, right?" FOX Weather Meteorologist Michael Estime said. "There’s way too much rain out in the Southeast, but it’s famine along the West Coast. In fact, it’s as dry as an overcooked turkey on Thanksgiving along the West Coast."
The FOX Forecast Center said that more than 25 cities across the Southwest are currently experiencing one of their top-five driest years on record, with much of the region in severe to exceptional drought.
"The entire state of Arizona, right? The Valley of the Sun. Absolutely in a drought, and about 30 to nearly 40 percent of the state is actually in an extreme (drought) with some exceptional drought being reported," Estime said.
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This graphic shows the Arizona drought monitor.
(FOX Weather)
It goes without saying that the region desperately needs precipitation.
"So, some folks are actually really celebrating the fact that we’ll get some rain," Estime continued. "Not just in Flagstaff, but in Albuquerque and all the way up in Colby, Kansas."
Phoenix is nearly 3 inches below its average rainfall for the year, while Flagstaff is running more than 4 inches below average.
Thunderstorms that develop could produce intense rainfall rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour, leading to some localized flash flooding.
Flood-prone areas, including in canyons and burn scars, should be aware of the threat as we enter into the upcoming workweek.