Millions of Americans in for a pleasant November as above-average temperatures take hold
It could take several weeks for these cold weather traits to work their magic and influence the jet stream to create larger patterns. As a result, the winter-like temperatures will likely materialize by late November and early December.
Severe storm threat charging up across portions of the South and Great Plains
FOX 5 Meteorologist Jonathan Stacey breaks down the cross-country storm threat targeting portions of the South and Great Plains this week, generating heavy rain and a flash flood threat for millions.
THE TAKEAWAY
- A developing El Niño pattern is expected to play a major role and create mild temperatures.
- November will have above-average temperatures most of the month.
- Colder, winter-like temperatures are likely to shift by the end of the month.
A major disruption of the polar vortex is developing over the Arctic, bringing a significant shift in fall temperatures just as Halloween weekend wraps up.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, this would be unusually early for such weather developments, raising questions about whether winter weather is on the way.
Still, colder weather doesn't appear to be coming in the immediate future, as changes in the stratosphere don't translate into colder surface weather overnight.
WHAT ARE THE 5 LAYERS OF OUR ATMOSPHERE?
It could take about several weeks for these cold weather traits to work their magic and influence the jet stream to create larger patterns.
As a result, the winter-like temperatures will likely materialize by late November and early December, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
This also depends on where the cold air settles when the polar vortex becomes disrupted.
This matters because Arctic air does not spread evenly across the Northern Hemisphere, as surrounding high and low-pressure systems help determine where the coldest conditions develop.
Currently, forecast models predict the coldest air moving across Siberia, northern Eurasia and parts of Eastern Europe, while much of North America remains on the milder side of the pattern.
SARAJEVO, BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA - OCTOBER 19: Autumn foliage brings warm shades of yellow, orange, and red to the parks and promenades of Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, on October 19, 2026. Fallen leaves carpet walkways across the capital, creating picturesque seasonal scenery for residents and visitors. (Samir Jordamovic/Anadolu / Getty Images)
As a result, this would limit the development of prolonged arctic cold temperatures across the U.S.
If you want a delay in the cold weather, you’re in luck, as a developing El Niño pattern is expected to play a major role throughout North America this month, with a more active Pacific jet stream potentially bringing persistent mild air across the country.
COULD SUPER EL NIÑO INFLUENCE THE POLAR VORTEX TO DO SOMETHING IT'S NEVER DONE BEFORE THIS WINTER?
This sort of pattern would bring above-average temperatures across much of the Northern U.S., including the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast.
Brief cold spells are possible, but forecast models show warmer-than-average temperatures for most of November.
Despite the warmer-than-normal temperatures, the developing polar vortex is worth monitoring through the first week of this month as the disruption occurs.
MASSIVE CROSS-COUNTRY STORM TARGETS SOUTHWEST BEFORE UNLEASHING DANGEROUS WEATHER ACROSS 35 STATES
The end of the month will bring another chance for a shift in the weather pattern, with milder temperatures for northern locations in the U.S.