Tornadoes, large hail threaten millions in Midwest as Wednesday kicks off 7-day severe weather stretch
The central and northern Plains, as well as portions of the Upper Midwest, will see storms fire up first on Wednesday before threat zones shift and expand to include more areas of the nation through the workweek and weekend, as well as into the start of next week.
Seven day stretch of severe weather kicks off Wednesday
The FOX Forecast Center is monitoring a severe weather threat that kicks off on Wednesday and could stretch into the start of next week. FOX Weather Meteorologists Bob Van Dillen and Ari Sarsalari break down the forecast on May 14, 2025.
CHICAGO – There’s been an eerie lull in extreme weather across the U.S. recently, but all that is about to change as the FOX Forecast Center monitors a seven-day stretch of severe weather that kicks off on Wednesday.
The central and northern Plains, as well as portions of the Upper Midwest, will see storms fire up first on Wednesday before threat zones shift and expand to include more areas of the nation through the workweek and weekend, as well as into the start of next week.
This graphic provides an overview of a multiday severe weather threat that begins Wednesday. (FOX Weather)
The FOX Forecast Center said that confidence is continuing to grow around a more active severe weather pattern starting Wednesday as an upper-level disturbance emerges from the West and moves into the central U.S.
The disturbance will then help to form a vigorous area of low pressure at the surface across the central and northern Plains, setting the stage for storms to fire up across portions of the Midwest, including cities like Chicago and Milwaukee, by late Thursday and into Thursday night.
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The FOX Forecast Center said the strongest instability and storm energy on Wednesday will be found from the Kansas-Nebraska border northward into the Dakotas.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed more than 1.4 million people in a Level 2 threat on its 5-point severe thunderstorm risk scale.
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This includes cities such as Grand Island and Kearney in Nebraska, Sioux City in Iowa, Sioux Falls in South Dakota and Bismarck in North Dakota.
Thunderstorms that develop on Wednesday will be capable of producing very large hail (potentially larger than 2 inches), damaging wind gusts and some tornadoes.
Severe storm threat grows in Chicago, Milwaukee
Forecasters have been monitoring the severe weather threat in the Midwest since the weekend, and that continues to grow.
More than 16 million people in cities like Chicago and Naperville in Illinois, Milwaukee and Madison in Wisconsin and Grand Rapids in Michigan have been placed in a Level 3 out of 5 threat on Thursday.
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Cities like Detroit, Indianapolis, Minneapolis and Cincinnati are currently under a Level 2 out of 5 threat.
The FOX Forecast Center said that as the system continues to intensify, moisture from the Gulf will surge north and combine with high instability and wind shear – the change in wind speed and direction with height – to support the potentially volatile severe storm environment.
An early-morning "cap" – essentially an atmospheric lid – will erode quickly by Thursday afternoon, allowing severe storms to develop in central and southern Minnesota.
Storms will be capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind gusts. There may also be some wind shear that could produce an early tornado threat.
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Ahead of that line, supercell thunderstorms could develop where wind shear is highest. The FOX Forecast Center said there is the potential to see long-lived supercell thunderstorms in portions of Illinois, northern Indiana, southwestern Wisconsin and southwestern Michigan.
Those areas, forecasters said, are where there could be a possibly significant tornado threat.
The severe weather threat will continue as we head toward the end of the workweek, with more than 18 million people in cities like St. Louis, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Memphis and Nashville in Tennessee in a Level 2 out of 5 risk of severe weather.
The main threats from thunderstorms that develop will be large hail and damaging wind gusts, but tornadoes will also be possible.
Long-range models show severe weather threat extending into next week
This animated graphic shows a severe weather threat starting on Sunday, May 18. (FOX Weather)
As we get into the upcoming weekend, computer forecast models show that the threat of severe weather could extend into at least the start of next week.
The FOX Forecast Center said an area of low pressure is expected to form near the Rockies by early Sunday. Storm energy will move into the southern Plains as a warm front lifts northward.
Storms are then expected to fire up east of the dryline – a boundary separating a humid air mass from a much drier air mass – by late Sunday.
By Monday, a more widespread severe weather threat is expected as the system moves deeper into the Plains, with all severe weather hazards possible.
Then, by Tuesday, the FOX Forecast Center said the threat of severe weather could push eastward into the Ohio Valley. However, that’s still several days away, and details will be ironed out as more information is learned.