Strengthening El Niño could shake up fall weather across the US. Here’s what to expect
According to the National Weather Service, El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.
FILE: Tracking potential super El Niño: How could it shape weather patterns across the US?
Experts are suggesting that a super El Niño is likely this year, which could bring major impacts to weather patterns across the U.S. FOX Weather Meteorologists Nick Kosir, Haley Meier, Michael Estime and FOX 26 Meteorologist Allison Gargaro are breaking down what people might see if the super El Niño develops.
As summer slowly comes to an end amid the crazy weather of hurricane season, forecasters are shifting their attention to the dark-horse severe threat of El Niño this fall and its potential impacts.
According to the National Weather Service, El Niño is strengthening, with over a 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.
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In light of this, forecasters are working to determine what fall will look like during an historic El Niño.
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 28: In an aerial view, fog envelopes the coastal community of La Jolla during a summer heat wave on August 28, 2026 in San Diego, California.
(Kevin Carter / Getty Images)
El Niño threat in the Southern US
Across the Southern Tier, the FOX Forecast Center is monitoring a threat stretching from California and the Desert Southwest through the Southern Great Plains and Gulf Coast, where a southward shift in the Pacific jet stream indicates the start of an early autumn rainy season.
Enhanced monsoon and tropical moisture will increase rainfall across portions of the Southwest and Southern Plains after persistent drought conditions this summer.
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This also brings the risk of flooding and mudslides in high, elevated areas.
Across the Gulf Coast, more rain and stormy weather will arrive as the El Niño churns, bringing a welcome change to drought-stricken areas.
SOLVANG, CA - NOVEMBER 16: Unusual asperitas clouds, created by a strong jet stream rushing overhead and hitting the nearby mountains, above a tranquil Danish tourist town as viewed on November 16, 2023, in Solvang, California.
(George Rose / Getty Images)
"Areas stretching from North Carolina into central Florida are also expected to be wetter than average," the FOX Forecast Center said. "Because the primary storm track will be displaced much farther south, severe storm chances across the Gulf Coast and Southeast will increase."
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El Niño threat in the Northern US
For portions of the Northern U.S., an unseasonably warm and dry fall is expected across the Northern Plains and Northwest, as persistent high-pressure ridges over the northern half of the country offer widespread above-average temperatures.
Regions that could experience dry, warm conditions include the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies and Upper Midwest, which could delay the arrival of average fall cooling temperatures.
Fall colors start peaking on Kenosha Pass in Park County, Colorado on Friday, September 20, 2024. (Photo by Hyoung Chang/The Denver Post)
As El Niño continues to develop, it will likely affect different regions across the U.S. with wet, severe conditions and much-needed drought relief after a dry summer. However, it still looks poised to have a large impact in the fall.
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Anything is possible; in fall 1997, one of the strongest events on record brought exceptionally warm conditions to the Northern U.S. while heavy storms began battering the West Coast as early as October.