Pena becomes first November tropical storm to form in Central Pacific since 1982 amid intensifying El Niño
While the Eastern Pacific hurricane season ends on Nov. 30, Dr. Andy Hazelton of the University of Miami said El Niño conditions could linger into the early part of the 2027 hurricane season.
Late-season Tropical Storm Pena forecast to strengthen in Central Pacific amid intensifying El Niño
Tropical Storm Pena became the first November tropical storm to form in the Central Pacific since 1982, which was a Super El Niño year. NOAA expects to declare a Super El Niño later this fall or winter. Dr. Andy Hazelton, Associate Scientist at the University of Miami, breaks down how the rapidly strengthening El Niño has impacted both the Atlantic and the Pacific this hurricane season.
THE TAKEAWAY
- Tropical Storm Pena formed in the Central Pacific well south of Hawaii.
- Pena could strengthen into the basin's 14th hurricane of the year.
- El Niño has fueled a hyperactive Pacific hurricane season.
- There are some signals that El Niño could linger into the 2027 hurricane season.
Tropical Storm Pena became the first November tropical storm to form in the Central Pacific since 1982, which was a Super El Niño year. NOAA expects Super El Niño conditions to take hold later this fall or winter.
Pena could strengthen into the basin's 14th hurricane of the season later next week. It's currently churning more than 550 miles south-southeast of Hawaii, with sustained winds of 50 mph.
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Pena is currently forecast to remain well south of Hawaii.
El Niño and a westerly wind burst have helped to spin up this late-season storm, Dr. Andy Hazelton, Associate Scientist at the University of Miami, told FOX Weather. Westerly wind bursts are strong winds that blow from west to east along the equator, temporarily reversing the normally east-to-west trade winds.
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Westerly wind bursts can push warm, moist air together, triggering clusters of thunderstorms and additionally help a storm spin more efficiently.
Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Pena on Nov. 7, 2026. (CIRA / FOX Weather)
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area to watch for tropical development offshore of Central America. This area is being given low odds of development over the next seven days.
While the Eastern Pacific hurricane season ends on Nov. 30, Hazelton said El Niño conditions could linger into the early part of the 2027 hurricane season.
The entire Pacific Basin has been exceptionally active this season, with warmer-than-average waters associated with El Niño helping fuel tropical activity.
The basin has produced 24 named storms, 13 of which became hurricanes, 10 of which reached major status, category 3 strength or stronger.
BREWING SUPER EL NIÑO HELPS SUPPORT MONSTER SUPER TYPHOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC
Damage in Poipu, Hawaii, from Hurricane Lowell on Tuesday, Sep. 8, 2026. (FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
It's been an active hurricane season for Hawaii, a state which rarely sees tropical activity. Hawaii saw a direct hit from major Hurricane Lowell in early September, in addition to close passes from Lala, Moke and Nolo.
Hurricane Iwa formed about 500 miles south of Honolulu on Nov. 19, 1982, and ended up making a close pass west and north of Kaua'i.
Criteria for Super El Niño (FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
El Niño is one of three phases of a climate cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It describes natural temperature changes in the central Pacific Ocean that alter atmospheric circulation and can greatly influence global weather.
Water temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific, averaged more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal in September, which is considered Super El Niño territory.
Temperatures have to remain 2 degrees above average for three months to officially be considered a Super El Niño event.