Major Hurricane Lowell could follow eerily similar track to the worst hurricane in Hawaii's history
Hurricane Iniki, Hawaii's worst storm of record, still casts a long shadow in the memory of longtime Kauaʻi residents.
Hawaii braces for potential direct strike from major Hurricane Lowell
🌀HAWAII ON ALERT: Part of Hawaii is now in the cone of major Category 4 Hurricane Lowell. The National Hurricane Center is warning people in Hawaii that Lowell could still be a major hurricane as it makes its approach early next week. A direct landfall is still possible. Watch FOX Weather for the LATEST update:
THE TAKEAWAY
- Major Hurricane Lowell could follow a track eerily similar to that of 1992’s Hurricane Iniki.
- Hurricane Iniki also formed during an El Niño year.
- Iniki destroyed over 70% of the homes on Kauai and remains Hawaii’s deadliest and costliest hurricane.
LIHUE, Hawaii — Major Hurricane Lowell, currently passing south of Hawaii, is forecast to turn northward over the weekend, and could follow a track eerily similar to that of 1992’s Hurricane Iniki, the most devastating storm in the state’s history.
LATEST FROM FOX WEATHER HURRICANE SPECIALIST BRYAN NORCROSS
Hurricane Lowell forecast cone compared to Hurricane Iniki's 1992 track.
(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
Iniki made landfall on Sep. 11, 1992 on the western side of Kauai as a Category 4 storm, killing six people and damaging or destroying 70% of the homes and businesses on the island, according to Hawaii's Department of Defense.
The storm caused an estimated $2.6 billion in damage — roughly $6 billion in today’s dollars — and remains Hawaii’s deadliest and costliest hurricane.
HURRICANE INIKI 30 YEARS LATER
The small, but intense hurricane made a hard turn northward before passing over Kauai.
Storm surge ripped parts of the coastal areas to pieces.
(NOAA)
According to NOAA, Iniki packed sustained winds of 145 mph, with 172 mph gusts.
"The damage wrought by lniki was nearly incomprehensible: thousands of utility poles were down, knocking out Kauai’s electrical and telephone systems; electric water pumps were inoperative, cutting off the water supply to homes; crops lay in ruin; the shoreline and beaches were decimated; 14,340 homes on the island were damaged," according to a 1992 state department of defense report.
Iniki's high winds stripped foliage from trees and branches.
(NOAA)
Recovery operations did not begin to wind down until six years later, according to state reports.
Infamously, Iniki struck during the final days of filming of Steven Spielberg's 1993 blockbuster Jurassic Park.
HOW OFTEN DO TROPICAL SYSTEMS IMPACT THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS?
Scene from 1993 motion picture Jurassic Park
(Murray Close/Sygma/Sygma via Getty Images / Getty Images)
In another eerie parallel, Iniki struck during an El Niño year, with the first Atlantic hurricane, the equally infamous and devastating Hurricane Andrew, forming just weeks before.
Current forecasts from NOAA indicate that this El Niño has a 69% chance of becoming the strongest El Niño since record keeping began in 1950, and a hurricane has not formed in the Atlantic basin this year as the historical peak of hurricane season approaches.
EL NIÑO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO RECORD TERRITORY
Hawaii is typically isolated from powerful hurricanes because it is usually surrounded by cooler water in the 70s, which is not conducive to tropical development.
Major hurricanes to make landfall on Hawaii.
(FOX Weather)
According to NOAA, only four major hurricanes with at least 115 mph winds have passed within 50 miles of the 137 Hawaiian Islands.
WHY ARE HURRICANES SO RARE IN HAWAII
Additionally, an area of high pressure is generally parked northeast of the islands that helps steer hurricanes and tropical storms away from the state.
However, El Niño can weaken Hawaii’s natural meteorological defenses by warming water in the Central Pacific, including around Hawaii, creating a more favorable environment for tropical systems.
Current sea surface temperatures.
(FOX Weather)
Current sea surface temperatures around Hawaii are in the low 80s. The strongest tropical systems to hit the islands largely approach from the south, bypassing cooler waters and hostile winds.
Iniki remains the last hurricane to make a direct landfall on Hawaii.
TRACK HURRICANE LOWELL: PATH, FORECAST CONE, SPAGHETTI MODELS, WIND AND MORE
Hawaii's storm of record still casts a long shadow in the memory of longtime residents.
Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami urged residents to remain calm and prepare as officials monitor Hurricane Lowell.
"I know this forecast is scary, especially for those of us who remember Iniki," Kawakami said Wednesday. "But stay calm, stay informed and be prepared."
The mayor advised people to have 14 days’ worth of supplies, a go bag and a battery-powered radio.
Hurricane Center warns Hawaii to monitor Lowell's progress through the weekend
While the majority of forecast models keep Lowell west of Hawaii, Kauai is currently within the National Hurricane Center's cone, indicating that direct landfall is possible early next week.
(FOX Weather)
Even if Lowell passes west of the islands, it could still bring huge waves and gusty winds to Kauai.
HOW ARE HURRICANES RATED? THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE EXPLAINED
"The strength of the winds will, obviously, depend on how far away the center of Lowell ends up tracking," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said Thursday.
"Forecasts for just developing, disorganized, or slow-moving storms are subject to larger-than-normal errors," Norcross added.
A resident stops on a rural road as it floods in Volcano Village on Hawaii Island, on August 15, 2026. Hurricane Lala on Saturday lashed Hawaii's Big Island with heavy rain and strong winds, as forecasters warned of potentially dangerous flooding across the US Pacific island state.
((Photo by Jill K. Briggs / AFP via Getty Images) / Getty Images)
"In this case, Hurricane Lowell will certainly be well-developed, but it will slow down significantly as it makes its turn to the north," he continued.
El Niño has made for a rare busy hurricane season for Hawaii. Hurricane Lala brought more than 3 feet of rain to parts of Hawaii Island when it passed just south of the Big Island on Aug. 15. Tropical Storm Moke also delivered a few wind gusts and rain to the Big Island just a week later.
Police officers from the Honolulu Police Department block a flooded street near the Hawaii Convention Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, on August 16, 2026. Hurricane Lala was pulling away from Hawaii's Big Island early Sunday, as heavy rain and strong winds struck the US Pacific state and officials warned of potentially dangerous flooding. The heavy rain and flood risk will then spread westward across the island chain on Sunday, according to the NHC.
( Eugene Tanner / AFP / Getty Images)
The last tropical storm to make landfall in Hawaii was Olivia, which came ashore on Maui and Lanai in 2018.