October outlook: Summer tries to hold on with El Niño impacts expected to make a spooky appearance
According to the FOX Forecast Center, a persistent wet pattern is expected from the Gulf Coast and Southeast up through the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. These regions will likely see above average rain in October.
October outlook: Stormy across the South as El Niño impacts expected to make a spooky appearance
As the calendar turns to October, a rapidly strengthening El Niño climate pattern will make its presence felt across the Lower 48, most notably bringing more storms and rain to the Gulf Coast while the Northwest and Upper Midwest stay dry.
THE TAKEAWAY
- El Niño impacts will be felt across the Lower 48 this October.
- The Southeast will likely be wetter and stormier than average, while the Northwest and Upper Midwest is expected to stay dry and warmer than average.
- A brief summer-like sizzle across the eastern part of the country this week before fall temperatures return.
As the calendar turns to October, a rapidly strengthening El Niño climate pattern will make its presence felt across the Lower 48, most notably bringing more storms and rain to the Gulf Coast while the Northwest and Upper Midwest stay dry.
Average fall temperatures to slightly above-average conditions are expected across most of the country through October, with the Rockies and Northern Plains most likely to experience unseasonable warmth.
TEXAS IN BULL'S-EYE OF DANGEROUS, TROPICALLY ENHANCED 1,500-MILE FLOOD THREAT COVERING 11 STATES
FILE - Heavy rain and dark, heavy clouds cover homes in the Kissimmee area of Florida on Thursday afternoon, August 31. ((Photo by Ronaldo Silva/NurPhoto via Getty Images) / Getty Images)
Rainy start and summer's last gasp
Summer will try to stick around for another week. Starting on Wednesday, temperatures are expected to rebound to 10-15 degrees above average across the Mid-South, Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast.
While record heat is not expected, temperatures are forecast to reach the low 90s in the Southeast on Wednesday. New York City could near the mid 80s this Friday.
Meanwhile, another surge of tropical moisture, this time from the Gulf, will be funneled across the Southeast this weekend after a tropically enhanced flood threat soaked the Central U.S. this week.
Cooler fall temperatures are expected to return to most of the country by the end of the weekend.
El Niño expected to bring wetter October across the South
El Niño is one of three phases of a climate cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It describes natural temperature changes in the central Pacific Ocean that alter atmospheric circulation and can greatly influence global weather.
NEARLY 100% ODDS OF SUPER EL NIÑO THIS FALL
Some of El Niño’s most significant impacts across the Lower 48 begin to emerge in the fall, as the Pacific jet stream strengthens and shifts south over the southern U.S.
Typical El Niño winter impacts. (FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
The jet stream acts as an atmospheric conveyor belt for storms, guiding them across the Pacific, onto the West Coast and over the Southeast Coast.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, a persistent wet pattern is expected from the Gulf Coast and Southeast up through the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. These regions will likely see above average rain in October.
Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure is expected to anchor itself in the Northwest, keeping the Rockies and Upper Midwest dry and likely warmer than average.
Simultaneously, the Southeast and Gulf Coast will sit closer to seasonal averages, dampened by frequent cloud cover and rain, while the rest of the country trends overall mild and warm for mid-autumn, the FOX Forecast Center said.