Potential tropical Gulf threat brews while Atlantic stays quiet under massive Saharan dust, hostile winds
FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin points out that while a dying cold front could favor tropical activity, wind shear and dry air are expected to limit development—though warm water could still fuel the system.
Tropical interest grows in the Gulf while Atlantic stays quiet under Saharan dust, hostile winds
The FOX Forecast Center is tracking the eastern Gulf as recent forecast models hint at potential tropical development later this weekend. The system faces several limiting factors, but warm waters could still fuel development.
The FOX Forecast Center is closely monitoring the eastern Gulf as multiple forecast models begin to indicate the potential for tropical development over the warm Gulf waters later this weekend. While it is too early to pinpoint the exact timing, strength or potential impacts, there is still a chance a tropical system could develop.
LATEST FROM FOX WEATHER HURRICANE SPECIALIST BRYAN NORCROSS
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The Exclusive FOX Weather Tropical Threat shows a low chance of development through next Wednesday. The FOX Forecast Center says the potential development window would be early next week.
DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT TARGETS MILLIONS ACROSS TEXAS, INCLUDING HILL COUNTRY, AND THE GULF COAST
A system is considered to be "tropical" when well-organized thunderstorms rotate around a distinct center over warm water.
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Historically, most of the tropical systems that develop in July are so-called "homegrown threats" — systems that develop close to the American coastline.
Currently, hostile winds, plumes of Saharan dust and average water temperatures are creating hostile conditions for tropical development in the open Atlantic, in what has been a quiet start to the season.
Tropical Storm Arthur, which formed along the Texas coast on June 17, remains the year's only named storm thus far.
FREEPORT, TEXAS - JUNE 17: Floodwater surrounds a neighborhood after Tropical Storm Arthur made landfall on June 17, 2026 in Freeport, Texas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, stretching from the mid-to-upper Texas coast into Louisiana, as Tropical Storm Arthur brought heavy downpour and flooding. Tropical Storm Arthur becomes the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
(Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images / Getty Images)
However, water temperatures remain above average in the Gulf and off the Southeast coast.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, a weakening cold front moving over these warm waters this weekend could spark a broad area of low pressure and stormy weather.
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FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin notes that this type of tropical development is "very common for this time of year," but stresses that proximity to land remains a major variable.
While the dying front could favor tropical activity, Merwin emphasizes that wind shear and dry air are expected to act as limiting factors—though the warm water could still fuel the system.
"Outside of keeping an eye on the forecast updates over the next few days, there is no immediate cause for concern," the FOX Forecast Center said.
The next named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season would be "Bertha."
FOX Weather is your Hurricane HQ. Check back for updates on this developing story.