Bryan Norcross: Coastal impacts continue as the nor'easter #93L makes a run at morphing into Josephine
The National Hurricane Center has the odds in the medium range that the nor’easter will completely shed its front and take on a tropical configuration today or tomorrow.
Nor'easter could become Subtropical or Tropical Storm Josephine as it lashes Mid-Atlantic coast
A powerful nor’easter spinning off the North Carolina coast is starting its slow turn out to sea but will continue to cause coastal flooding, beach erosion, gusty winds, dangerous surf along parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coasts through Thursday. This storm is being given medium odds of taking on topical characteristics and being named Subtropical or Tropical Storm Josephine. But regardless of development its forecast to remain offshore as it moves away from the coast through the end of the workweek.
This story was last updated at 9:10 a.m. on Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026.
The persistent nor'easter that is officially tagged Invest 93L continues to spin about 350 miles offshore of Virginia Beach. Top winds with the system are estimated at 50 mph with stronger gusts. The persistent north to northeast winds on the system’s west side continue to push ocean water onto and over the coast from North Carolina to New Jersey, especially at high tide. River flooding is also occurring because the high tides are holding back the water.
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Atlantic Basin on Oct. 21, 2026. (FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
Stay aware of local forecasts for coastal sections. As the storm slowly moves to the north and intensifies, winds will increase a bit along the Jersey Shore and southeastern New England. Gusts at the coast could reach 40+ mph.
The nor'easter is centered so far offshore that most of the coast will only see gusty winds and elevated tides, but Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and especially Nantucket will likely receive rain from the outer edge of the storm.
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Odds of getting a name
The nor'easter is making a good effort to get named. The system has developed a core that looks a lot like a tropical storm over the unusually warm ocean water offshore of the Mid-Atlantic.
Satellite imagery of Invest 93L (CIRA)
Recall that this system started as a part of a frontal system that was the leading edge of the cool air that continues across the eastern part of the U.S. The remnants of that front still exist, so in toto, the system is non-tropical. Since the storm will be over warm water today and tomorrow, the temperature difference across the front will slowly dissipate.
The National Hurricane Center has the odds in the medium range that the nor’easter will completely shed its front and take on a tropical configuration today or tomorrow. By Friday, the system, whether it's tropical or not, will be moving over colder water and heading out to sea, although it might brush Atlantic Canada.
Winds are already above tropical storm force, so it would jump right to Josephine if it sheds the front. Since it's developing thunderstorms so close to the center, it's looking more like a tropical storm than a so-called subtropical storm.
What's the most important, however, is that the change in status to a tropical system is a distinction without a difference in terms of impacts along the coast.
The most important aspect of the forecast is that by late tomorrow, the onshore and alongshore winds will let up. The long assault on the beaches and waterways of the Mid-Atlantic will be over.
In the Pacific near Mexico
Tropical Storm Vance is likely to form out of the disturbance that is expected to develop offshore of southern Mexico. The consensus of the computer forecast models is that it will eventually turn into yet another hurricane tracking along or just offshore of the west-central Mexican coast.
Pacific Basin on Oct. 21, 2026 (Bryan Norcross)
Surges of moisture from these Pacific storms will continue to feed into the Southwest. Stay aware. Flood alerts are becoming a regular feature in the weather forecasts in that part of the country.