Brewing nor'easter to 'bomb' out with Carolinas in bullseye, days after deadly storm raged across the US

As much of the Northeast digs out from the biggest snowstorm in half a decade, New York, Philadelphia, and Boston could all be on track to see another major system on its heels.

Hot on the heels of a deadly major winter storm that carved its way 2,300 miles across the United States, bringing life-threatening ice and heavy snow to several areas, comes a potential nor'easter that has the strong likelihood to "bomb out." 

Regions like the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast saw significant snow over the weekend, and are beginning to dig out. Now, a nor'easter is forecast off the East Coast for this upcoming weekend, and is looking increasingly likely to develop into a bomb cyclone.

ARCTIC PLUNGE: POLAR VORTEX LOCKS IN SNOW, ICE AND LIFE-THREATENING COLD BEHIND HISTORIC CROSS-COUNTRY STORM

Given the ingredients current models are projecting, it is becoming nearly certain that a powerful storm will develop, though where it bombs has not been set in stone just yet.

Image 1 of 5

The ingredients for the upcoming winter storm threat will come together ahead of the weekend as a robust disturbance pivots in the south, as a strong upper-level disturbance is expected to become embedded within the jet stream. ( )

Image 2 of 5

As the extreme cold settles in the South, the location of disturbance favors the strengthening of an area of low pressure off the East Coast. ( )

Image 3 of 5

There is higher confidence that coastal areas of South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia see winter impacts as low pressure area forms on the Southeast coast. ( )

Image 4 of 5

If the area of coastal low tracks north along the coast, New York, Philadelphia, and Boston could all be on track to see another major system on its heels. If it tracks further east into the Atlantic, the Northeast won't see as much snow, but will feel the storm through high winds.  ( )

Image 5 of 5

This graphic showcases where forecast models predict where the coastal low will form off the East Coast this Sunday.  ( )

There is growing confidence in major snow slamming the Carolinas and Virginia, but from there, uncertainty remains regarding exactly where the storm tracks. The scenarios range from a crippling I-95 blizzard to a glancing blow. 

As much of the Northeast digs out from the biggest snowstorm in half a decade, New York, Philadelphia, and Boston could all be on track to see another major system on its heels.

Still days out from the storm, the necessary ingredients are setting the stage for an East Coast bomb cyclone that could bring more snow.

TAKING SHAPE

This past weekend, a historic winter storm that stretched more than 2,300-miles across the U.S. impacted more than 235 million Americans across more than 35 states. This upcoming winter storm has a different origin story.

Last week’s event resulted from two separate pieces of energy phasing together, ultimately producing a large, cross-country storm system. In contrast, the setup for this weekend more closely resembles the development of a coastal low or a classic nor’easter forming along the Eastern Seaboard.

WHAT IS THE JET STREAM?

With a pronounced dip in the jet stream reinforcing cold air and suppressing the storm's track farther south, a strong upper-level disturbance is expected to become embedded within the jet stream late in the week that could set the stage for the key ingredient: the development of an area of low pressure off the East Coast.

Forecast models continue to show a stronger signal for a potential coastal storm, though uncertainty remains regarding the exact track as the system moves northward. At this time, confidence is highest in a low forming off the Carolina coastline heading into the weekend. 

With colder air already in place, this setup could support snowfall along with increasingly strong winds as the system intensifies.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER 

Should these forecast ingredients come together, it could set the stage for another snowstorm for the northeastern portion of the Interstate 95 corridor, which had been suffering from a decade-long snow drought in many locales before last weekend's storm. 

BUILDING THE BOMB

Still days out from the upcoming storm, there are still numerous scenarios on the table for how this storm plays out.

One notable aspect of this potential storm is the likelihood that it could rapidly strengthen, or "bomb out." 

This process, known as bombogenesis, occurs when a storm’s central pressure drops at least 24 millibars in 24 hours. Current projections suggest the system could deepen from around 1008 millibars to near 970 millibars in just one day. 

Such rapid intensification would create a very tight pressure gradient, leading to powerful winds and potentially hazardous conditions.

UNCERTAINTY AHEAD

The greatest uncertainty remains the storm’s track after impacting the Carolinas, though back-to-back weekend snow is possible in the Northeast, as forecast model guidance remains split on whether the storm will track into the region. 

Days out from the weekend, the FOX Forecast Center is monitoring several scenarios on the table. 

For the Northeast, forecasters often reference the "40/70 benchmark," located at 40°N and 70°W—roughly 80 to 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts. Historically, this position has been considered optimal for producing significant snowfall along the I-95 corridor.

Even if snowfall remains limited along the East Coast, gusty winds appear to be a primary concern and could result in coastal flooding or dangerous surf conditions.

There is still much to monitor and refine, and a clearer picture of this potential system will emerge in the coming days. Stay tuned with FOX Forecast Center in the coming days to find out which East Coast states face the winter weather wrath the powerful storm has to offer.

Check back for updates on this developing story.