Growing potential for Invest 92L to intensify into Hurricane Isaias as data reveals its track uncertainty
The increasing chance of a tropical depression has warranted hurricane hunters to be deployed Tuesday afternoon, which will provide crucial data for models to see how how hostile or how favorable the environment is around Invest 92L.
Tropical Depression likely to form in the Gulf this week but storm's exact future remains uncertain
A tropical depression is likely to form in the southern Gulf this week amid the quietest start to an Atlantic hurricane season since 1966, the start of the satellite era, with no hurricanes having formed this year. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated a brewing tropical disturbance as Invest 92L, and is giving the system high odds of becoming at least a tropical depression over the next two days. From there, how strong this storm becomes and exactly where it tracks still remains uncertain.
THE TAKEAWAY
- Invest 92L is likely to strengthen into a tropical depression in the southern part of the Gulf later this week.
- Wednesday will be a crucial day for determining the system's development.
- Even if the system does not become tropical, the Gulf Coast could see another round of heavy rain and potential flash flooding this weekend.
A tropical depression is likely to form in the southern Gulf this week amid the quietest start to an Atlantic hurricane season since 1966, the start of the satellite era, with no hurricanes having formed this year.
THE LATEST FROM FOX WEATHER HURRICANE SPECIALIST BRYAN NORCROSS
(FOX Weather)
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated a brewing tropical disturbance as Invest 92L, and is giving the system high odds of becoming at least a tropical depression over the next two days. From there, how strong this storm becomes and exactly where it tracks still remains an open question.
WHAT IS AN INVEST DURING HURRICANE SEASON?
The term "invest" is used every hurricane season in the Atlantic and the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, accompanied by a number from 90 to 99 and either the suffix "L," "E" or "C," respectively.
(FOX Weather)
Currently, a massive cold front is draped over Central Florida and is extending across the Gulf, bringing days of heavy rain to the Sunshine State through the workweek.
A storm could develop at the tail end of this front sometime on Thursday or Friday, potentially developing a more defined center that forecasters can track.
CALIFORNIA DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY AS POTENTIALLY HISTORIC SUPER EL NIÑO LOOMS
However, Wednesday will be a crucial day in determining this system's future as it begins to interact with more hostile El Niño-driven winds as well as dry air, which have helped suppress the hurricane season in the Atlantic overall.
(FOX Weather)
"A more defined system in the southern Gulf will be able to defend itself from the hostile conditions," the FOX Forecast Center said.
"Some models now are hinting at possibly our first hurricane of the season, but there is still a lot to fine tune as uncertainty remains extremely high."
(FOX Weather)
The FOX Forecast Center said the system could also struggle to develop or remain closer to the coast of Mexico.
Regardless of tropical development, forecasts show another round of heavy rain headed to parts of the Florida and Louisiana coasts by the weekend.
NOAA's Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk for parts of the Southeast on Friday and Saturday.
(FOX Weather)
Meanwhile, Gulf water temperatures are currently at their warmest levels on record dating back to 1982. Warm waters are conducive for tropical development.
September ended without a hurricane for the first time in 32 years, despite it being the climatological peak of the season.
A neighborhood destroyed in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian in Fort Myers, Florida.
(RICARDO ARDUENGO/AFP / Getty Images)
If the entire 2026 Atlantic hurricane season ends without a hurricane, it would mark the first hurricane-free Atlantic season of the modern era.
Check back for updates on this developing story.