Caribbean monitored for possible tropical development ahead of Fourth of July holiday
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather over Central America that is expected to briefly move over the Bay of Campeche this weekend.
An area to watch for tropical development is moving through the Caribbean Sea
An area to watch with a low potential for tropical development is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean and southern Bay of Campeche in the coming days.
MIAMI - The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather over Central America that is expected to move briefly over the Bay of Campeche this weekend.
While the odds of tropical development remain low so far, forecasters expect the area of showers and thunderstorms to bring beneficial rainfall to parts of drought-stricken Mexico.
The Bay of Campeche is known for rapid spin-ups of tropical cyclones due to warm sea surface temperatures and favorable terrain, but several factors are working against significant development in this case.
Forecast models and the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation suggest that environmental conditions will likely inhibit tropical cyclone formation.
Even if the system were to organize, any impacts would remain well south of the U.S.–Mexico border, near Tampico, Mexico, which is roughly 300 miles south of the Lone Star State.
2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON GUIDE: HERE’S WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THE TROPICS THIS YEAR
So far, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet, with the basin’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or what is commonly referred to as ACE, sitting at a meager 0.2 units.
ACE is a metric used by forecasters to quantify the strength and duration of tropical cyclones, with greater values indicating stronger, longer-lasting systems.
According to data compiled by Colorado State University, the 2025 ACE value is more than 90% below average for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America.
Several factors have contributed to the suppressed activity in the Atlantic basin, including above-normal surface pressures, increased atmospheric stability and a lack of moisture over the tropics.
Adding to the suppression is the heightened amount of tropical activity in the eastern Pacific, which is running close to 30% above normal.
The string of recent developments, including the potential future formation of Tropical Storm Flossie, are believed to be contributing to a more hostile upper-level environment over parts of the Gulf and Caribbean.
BRYAN NORCROSS: TROPICAL DELAY TO EXTEND INTO JULY
The next name on the Atlantic season list is Barry, but as of now, there are no indications that a named storm will form in the immediate future.
The climatological peak of hurricane season occurs in mid-September, with tropical cyclone formation continuing into early November.
2025 Hurricane Season Names (FOX Weather)