Late-season tropical trouble brews in Caribbean as El Niño driven hurricane season enters final stretch
Despite the generally hostile El Niño conditions, winds are forecast to ease around the western Caribbean, which could allow thunderstorms and an area of low pressure to develop over the warm Caribbean waters.
Late-season tropical trouble brewing in the Caribbean amid historically quiet hurricane season
A strong El Niño has shut down the tropics across the Atlantic, leading to a historically quiet hurricane season this year, but long-range forecasts suggest that there could be some tropical development in the western Caribbean heading into mid-November.
THE TAKEAWAY
- Long-range forecasts suggest that there could be some tropical development in the western Caribbean late next weekend.
- A strong El Niño has shut down the tropics across the Atlantic, leading to a historically quiet hurricane season, producing just one hurricane.
- Atlantic hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.
A strong El Niño has shut down the tropics across the Atlantic, leading to a historically quiet hurricane season this year, but long-range forecasts suggest that there could be some tropical development in the western Caribbean heading into mid-November.
COULD SUPER EL NIÑO INFLUENCE THE POLAR VORTEX TO DO SOMETHING IT'S NEVER DONE BEFORE THIS WINTER?
(FOX Weather)
El Niño is typically associated with reduced tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin and increased storm activity in the Eastern and Central Pacific basins, along with a host of other weather impacts around the world outside of hurricane season.
The pattern generates strong winds high in the atmosphere over the Atlantic that hinder tropical development; calm conditions are generally more conducive to hurricane formation.
NOVEMBER TO KICK OFF WITH MAJOR CROSS-COUNTRY STORM BRINGING SNOW, FLOODING RAIN AS IT SWEEPS US
A cold front associated with the massive cross-country storm that will move across the nation this week is forecast to stall late next weekend.
(FOX Weather)
Despite the generally hostile El Niño conditions, winds are forecast to ease around the western Caribbean, which could allow thunderstorms and an area of low pressure to develop over the warm Caribbean waters.
"Right now, the threat remains low, but it is worth keeping an eye on into the end of the first week of November," the FOX Forecast Center said. "Any development is still 8-10 days out."
WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE?
However, even if something develops in the Caribbean, the Forecast Center expects a shield of hostile winds to protect the Lower 48 from any tropical system.
(FOX Weather)
November is the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season, when tropical activity typically drops off sharply, with the southwestern Caribbean and the subtropical Atlantic becoming the main areas to watch.
NOAA expects to declare Super El Niño conditions later this year, with an 83% chance of becoming the strongest El Niño since record-keeping began in 1950.
'HISTORIC' EL NIÑO INCREASINGLY LIKELY, WITH 83% CHANCE OF BECOMING THE STRONGEST ON RECORD
Criteria for Super El Niño
(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
El Niño is one of three phases of a climate cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It describes natural temperature changes in the central Pacific Ocean that alter atmospheric circulation and can greatly influence global weather.
Water temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific, averaged more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal in September, which is considered Super El Niño territory.
Temperatures have to remain 2 degrees above average for three months to officially be considered a Super El Niño event.
El Niño hurricane effect in the Atlantic versus in the Pacific.
(FOX Weather)
El Niño has certainly been the main driving factor behind the dearth of Atlantic tropical activity this year.
This hurricane season has been historically quiet, generating only 10 named storms, 1 hurricane (which was a major hurricane), well below the 30-year averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
HURRICANE ISAIAS DEATH TOLL RISES TO 6 IN FLORIDA AS STORM RECOVERY CONTINUES
Hurricane Isaias is making landfall along the Gulf Coast with worst impacts imminent
FOX Weather Senior Correspondent Robert Ray is live in Destin, Florida, as Hurricane Isaias is making landfall along the Gulf Coast.
However, the one hurricane that did form, Isaias, rapidly intensified into a major hurricane in the warm waters of the Gulf before making a destructive landfall along the Florida Panhandle.
And with waters still warm in the Caribbean, any storm that forms could pose a threat to the region.
Check back for updates on this developing story.