Super El Niño fueled winter could unleash more storms, driving more active pattern into the South

THE TAKEAWAY

• A Super El Niño is expected to keep much of the southern U.S. stormier and cooler this winter.
• Stormy pattern could help ease major droughts in the Southwest and Southern Plains.
• Northern and eastern U.S. will likely be warmer than average.

El Niño is expected to have a large influence on this winter across the U.S., with more storms expected from Southern California across the entire Southern Tier to Florida, according to NOAA's latest seasonal forecast.

Government forecasters said the increased likelihood of a stormy pattern across the southern U.S. could help ease major droughts in the Southwest and the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, NOAA's forecast called for warmer than average temperatures across much of the rest of the country. 

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER BEGINS DEC. 1

Meteorological winter begins in December and lasts through February.

NOAA Director Ken Graham warned communities across the southern part of the country to prepare for a wet winter.

"While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides," Graham said in a news release.

This comes just a week after NOAA said there is now an 83% chance that this will be the strongest El Niño since record-keeping began in 1950, up from a 75% chance last month.

WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE?

El Niño is one of three phases of a climate cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It describes natural temperature changes in the central Pacific Ocean that alter atmospheric circulation and can greatly influence global weather.

El Niño describes warmer than average water across the equatorial Pacific, while La Niña describes colder than average water conditions, and ENSO neutral refers to a state where temperatures are close to average.

These warmer waters influence atmospheric circulation and can shift the jet stream, changing storm tracks, precipitation patterns and temperatures across the U.S.

Water temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific, averaged more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal in September, which is considered Super El Niño territory.

Temperatures have to remain 2 degrees above average for three months to officially be considered a Super El Niño event.

During a Super El Niño, the Pacific jet stream tends to become more extended and active, acting as a conveyor belt that directs storms farther across the southern tier of the U.S.

This increased likelihood of storms is expected to keep temperatures near normal across the Southeast.

Much of the East Coast is also forecast to be wetter than average.

"The energized southern storm track increases the likelihood of heavy rain and coastal nor'easters," the FOX Forecast Center said.

At the same time, most of the states along the Northern Tier, from the Pacific Northwest across the Midwest and into New England are expected to be warmer than normal this winter.

"Traditional cold-and-snowy zones face below-average seasonal snow odds, though individual outbreaks can still produce big storms," the FOX Forecast Center said.

Drought is currently forecast to develop across the Northern Rockies and other parts of the Intermountain West.