El Niño-fueled storm triggers dangerous flood threat across Texas Hill Country, South Texas through weekend
During El Niño fall and winter, the Pacific jet stream tends to become more extended and active, acting as a conveyor belt that directs storms farther across the southern tier of the U.S.
South Texas, Texas Hill Country face dangerous El Niño-fueled flood threat through weekend
Parts of Central and South Texas are in the crosshairs of a dangerous flood threat, as areas from Austin south to Brownsville prepare for rounds of heavy rain beginning Saturday afternoon, with the greatest flood threat expected Sunday. This is the latest example of an El Niño storm pattern setting up across the southern part of the country.
THE TAKEAWAY
- Heavy rain to slam parts of West, Central and South Texas beginning Saturday.
- The flash flood risk increases and shifts south on Sunday, with a broad Level 2 threat covering parts of Hill Country and South Texas, including San Antonio.
- This is the latest example of an El Niño storm pattern setting up across the southern part of the country.
SAN ANTONIO — Parts of Central and South Texas are in the crosshairs of a dangerous flood threat, as areas from Austin south to Brownsville prepare for rounds of heavy rain beginning Saturday afternoon, with the greatest flood threat expected Sunday. This is the latest example of an El Niño storm pattern setting up across the southern part of the country.
HOW THE BREWING SUPER EL NIÑO WILL BENEFIT VARIOUS REGIONS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
During El Niño fall and winter, the Pacific jet stream tends to become more extended and active, acting as a conveyor belt that directs storms farther across the southern tier of the U.S.
This pattern has already begun to play out, with storms causing widespread flooding across parts of the Southwest over the last two weekends.
This weekend, the jet stream is positioned directly over South Texas, ushering in warm Pacific moisture that will combine with moisture that's surging in from the Gulf.
A slow-moving storm system will tap into that humidity, producing rounds of heavy rain through the weekend.
"Because there is very little atmospheric instability, rainfall rates should remain low, resulting in a steady, soaking rain rather than sudden, torrential downpours," the FOX Forecast Center said.
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A Level 1 out of 4 flash flood risk covers parts of West Texas, Texas Hill Country, as well as a corridor from Laredo to Brownsville, on Saturday.
The flash flood risk increases and shifts south on Sunday, with a broad Level 2 threat covering parts of Hill Country and South Texas, including San Antonio. The most persistent and heaviest rain is expected Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.
Widespread rainfall totals of up to 2 inches, with localized amounts of up to 4 inches are expected from Hill Country to the Gulf Coast through Tuesday as rain lingers over the region into early next week.
CENTER POINT, TEXAS - JULY 18: A 10-foot cross is seen along the banks of the Guadalupe River in front of Camp Mystic on July 18, 2025 in Hunt, Texas. (Brenda Bazán / The Washington Post / Getty Images)
Texas Hill Country, in particular, has been vulnerable to flooding, including the July 4, 2025, floods that killed 135 people when the Guadalupe River rose to record-breaking heights.