Rare Gulf-effect snow could bring snow flurries to South Florida
Areas from the Florida panhandle all the way down to the Fort Myers/Naples area could see snowflakes.
Arctic air and possible snow heads for the sunshine state
FLORIDA FREEZE: Cold weather alerts are in effect from Jacksonville to Tampa as Florida braces for an arctic freeze. FOX13 Chief Meteorologist Paul Dellegatto joins FOX Weather to discuss the freezing cold air that will impact the state.
A shot of extreme cold air is moving into Florida this weekend and with it comes a rare chance for snow along the Gulf Coast.
Areas from the Florida panhandle all the way down to the Fort Myers/Naples area could see snowflakes, though the chance is very low.
There is currently a 10 to 20% chance of snow flurries along the coast late Saturday night and into Sunday morning.
A process similar to lake-effect snow, something called Gulf-effect snow, could produce narrow bands of light snow in this uncommon setup.
The nor'easter that is expected to impact several states along the East Coast this weekend is also setting the stage for a wave of unusually cold air that will reach deep into South Florida.
On Saturday night, lingering moisture from the storm could mix with the bitter cold air and potentially create some flurries or a rain/snow mix along the Gulf Coast.
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It's a rare phenomenon, and it's not common in the area. Lake-effect snow forms when very cold arctic air moves over warmer water. The air just above the water warms slightly, rises quickly through the colder air above, forming clouds and producing snow downwind.
In Florida, a "Gulf-effect" setup could happen if cold air moves over the relatively warmer Gulf waters. But for this to happen, there needs to be a long fetch of northwest winds picking up moisture, combined with a big enough difference between the water temperature and the cold air above.
This graphic shows temperatures expected in Tampa, Florida, over the weekend. (FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
The larger the temperature difference, the faster the air rises, boosting the chance of snow.
The chance for a rain/snow mix on Saturday night is low, and any snow that does fall would likely melt immediately upon hitting the ground.
But it's important to note that any snow along Florida's Gulf Coast is rare, especially along the peninsula.
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Historically, Tampa, Florida, has only recorded measurable snow twice: 0.2 inches on Jan. 19, 1977, and 0.1 inches on Feb. 13, 1899. Naples, Florida, which could also get flurries, has never recorded measurable snow.
While flurries have been spotted in Central Florida before, accumulating snow is exceptionally difficult due to the normally warm ground and Gulf waters.