Prolonged tropical downpours target Florida with increasing flash flood threat through next week
Through Friday, widespread rain totals from 3 to 5 inches are forecast from Sarasota to Melbourne and southward, with 5 to 8 inches or more possible farther south from Naples to Miami.
Tropical downpours target Florida with half a foot of rain possible into next week
The Sunshine State is not going to be dry and sunshine-y much this week, as a large wave of tropical moisture slams into the state through next Friday. Up to six inches of rain is possible in some parts of Florida, which for most of this year has been in a state of significant drought.
Flash flooding and heavy, persistent downpours will be a concern for Florida into next week, helping to ease the severe drought that the Sunshine State has been in for most of the year.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, a robust mid-level low-pressure system is forecast to sit across Florida as it tracks beneath the massive heat dome anchored over the South into this weekend.
As it approaches Florida, this low will become "cut off," separating from the jet stream and stalling through the weekend, bringing lots of rain to the state.
Flash flooding will be the main concern with these downpours, and isolated thunderstorms that bring frequent lightning, gusty winds and reduced visibility are all possible.
MIAMI, FLORIDA - APRIL 10: A rain squall passes over the skyline on April 10, 2023 in Miami, Florida. (Joe Raedle / Getty Images)
Heading into next week, this cutoff low will dissipate as a dip in the jet stream develops over the central Gulf.
Moisture from the Pacific and Caribbean will be funneled to the northeast as high pressure builds over Mexico and the western Caribbean.
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According to the FOX Forecast Center, this will create an abundance of moisture from the Caribbean into southern Florida, increasing the coverage of tropical downpours and storms.
This surge of moisture is expected to peak around mid-to-late week, with cities such as Fort Myers, Miami and West Palm Beach possibly seeing the highest rain totals.
Through Friday, widespread rain totals from 3 to 5 inches are forecast from Sarasota to Melbourne and south, with 5 to 8 inches or more possible farther south from Naples to Miami.
All of this moisture, plus the saturated ground, will make flash flooding possible. A 1 out of 4 flash flood threat is now in place starting Saturday through Tuesday for mainly South Florida, including Miami and Fort Lauderdale.
A large portion of the Sunshine State has been under significant drought since the early portion of the year.