Major polar vortex disruption could be just 24 hours away — what happens next?
Don't run for the hills or dust off the snowplow just yet – this doesn't exactly mean temperatures will drop overnight, or at all.
Winter could feature a tug-of-war pattern between the Polar Vortex and Super El Niño
This winter could be one for the record books as Super El Niño and the Polar Vortex go head-to-head. With a predicted warmer winter ahead, the Polar Vortex may break down earlier than ever, sending cold air into the U.S. in late November or December. Only time will tell if Super El Niño with its warmer-than-average winter will come out on top or if the Polar Vortex will win out.
THE TAKEAWAY
- A major polar vortex disruption could develop within the next 24 hours, or roughly a week later.
- Any potential cold-weather impacts across North America would likely take several weeks to develop.
- El Niño and a strong Pacific jet stream are expected to favor above-average temperatures across much of the U.S. through December.
A potentially record-breaking disruption of the polar vortex is about to unfold, with the FOX Forecast Center sounding the alarms that the rift could occur within the next 24 hours. What exactly does that mean?
Don't run for the hills or dust off the snowplow just yet – this doesn't exactly mean temperatures will drop overnight, or at all.
COULD SUPER EL NIÑO PUT A DAMPER ON LAKE-EFFECT SNOW THIS WINTER?
The polar vortex is currently very weak, with FOX Forecast Center forecasts pointing to two possible windows for major disruption: within the next 24 hours, or roughly a week from now.
What is the polar vortex, and how is it disrupted?
The polar vortex is a band of strong winds that circles the North Pole from roughly 55 degrees north latitude — approximately the latitude of Ketchikan, Alaska — about 10 to 30 miles above the Earth.
Seasonal weather patterns in the lower atmosphere can send powerful atmospheric waves into the stratosphere. If those waves are strong enough, they can disrupt the polar vortex by weakening, displacing or splitting the circulation — and, in some cases, reversing its normally strong westerly winds.
HOW DOES THE POLAR VORTEX INFLUENCE WEATHER?
The disruption can alter the circulation of the atmosphere and increase the chances of Arctic air spilling southward.
Polar Vortex explainer. (FOX Weather)
In a season of weather extremes dominated by a Super El Niño, this polar vortex disruption could also be one for the books, as it could become the earliest major disruption on record, with potential implications for weather patterns through the rest of fall and eventually into winter.
Does this mean it's going to be cold?
So, will this record-early disruption bring loads of snow and train a polar express surge of cold into your town? Not exactly.
While a polar vortex disruption can lead to colder weather across North America, that does not appear to be the immediate outcome in this case.
"So far, models continue to show no major cold air outbreaks in the future," the FOX Forecast Center said.
Changes in the stratosphere don't translate into colder weather at the surface overnight. It can take several weeks for those changes to work their way downward and influence the jet stream and larger weather patterns.
HOW THE BREWING SUPER EL NIÑO WILL BENEFIT VARIOUS REGIONS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
Even if this becomes the earliest major breakdown on record, that does not necessarily mean colder air will arrive earlier.
Any potential impacts across North America would be more likely toward late November or December.
For now, forecast models continue to show the coldest air pooling across Eastern Europe and Siberia. Meanwhile, North America remains much warmer than average, limiting the chances for a prolonged stretch of Arctic air across the U.S.
El Niño impact
The developing El Niño pattern is also expected to play a major role in North American weather through November and into December.
THE RIPPLE EFFECT OF EL NIÑO: WHAT DOES IT MEAN AND HOW DOES IT IMPACT THE WORLD'S ECONOMY?
Starting next week, a stronger and more active Pacific jet stream is expected to carry mild air from the Pacific across the country.
That pattern will support above-average temperatures and make it more difficult for colder air to settle in for an extended period.
The Climate Prediction Center’s long-range forecasts continue to reflect this pattern, favoring above-average temperatures across much of the northern United States — including the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast — through December.
Brief cool spells remain possible, but the overall pattern currently favors a milder-than-average November and early winter.