Experts at NC State join growing chorus warning of busy hurricane season

If the season ends busier than average, it would be the seventh season of above normal activity

RALIEGH, N.C. – A growing number of forecasters are warning the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season could be more active than usual, marking the seventh straight season with above-average activity.

North Carolina State University researchers recently released their annual outlook, which calls for between 17-21 named storms, upwards of nine hurricanes and at least three that are expected to have winds greater than 115 mph.

The expectations are similar to those released by Colorado State University earlier in April.

NCSU researchers highlighted the Gulf of Mexico as possibly being particularly active thanks to a combination of weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures.

 

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will weigh in on how busy of a season its forecasters believe the basin could be with their annual forecast in late May.

All signs point to the season being busier than average, thanks to a continued La Niña, which influences weather patterns around the globe.

During a La Niña, water temperatures tend to be warmer across the Atlantic basin and upper-level winds are typically more conducive for tropical cyclone formation.

An average season across the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico produces 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three major cyclones.

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The last season to see below-average activity was 2015, when 11 named storms formed and only four strengthened into hurricanes.

If the 2022 season finishes with above-normal activity, it would set a record for being the seventh year in a row for having more named storms than usual.

The Atlantic hurricane season will officially start on June 1 and run through November 30.

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