Bone dry conditions in the Intermountain West and parts of the Plains are showing no signs of getting much relief anytime soon, according to the latest seasonal outlook presented by NOAA forecasters Thursday.
The June forecast shows enhanced probabilities of below-average rainfall continuing the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into western Kansas, eastern Colorado and New Mexico, and even into parts of Wyoming and Nebraska.
In addition, forecasters are very confident of above-average temperatures continuing across much of the Southwest, giving New Mexico, southern Colorado and western Texas and Oklahoma a better than 7 in 10 chance the monthly temperature will reach at least a half-degree or more above average in June.
Forecasters also predict a warmer than average start to summer across much of the Midwest, southeast and into the mid-Atlantic states.
The only exception to the warm start lies in the far Pacific Northwest and the Alaska Panhandle where cooler than average temperatures thanks to a stubborn two-year-long La Niña event are expected to persist through June. Seattle has reached 70 degrees just once this year so far.
For rainfall, just the Gulf Coast and Florida are expecting a wetter-than-average June. Much of the rest of the nation, including the Great Lakes, New England, Mid South and far Desert Southwest are not presenting a signal of going either wetter or drier than average.
Not much change for summer overall
NOAA's 90-day forecast encompassing Meteorological Summer (June 1 - Aug. 31) predicts a hot one across much of the nation.
Forecasters have the highest confidence in a warmer than average summer across nearly the entire West, especially Utah, Colorado and northern New Mexico where soil conditions remain parched and several wildfires continue to rage.
La Niña conditions are expected to hold through the summer, giving additional weight to staying warm and dry in the West and central Plains.
Those in New England and the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia through New York and Boston are also looking at a hotter than average summer, thanks to warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the offshore Atlantic waters.
The only spot in the U.S. given any confidence of a cooler than average summer is along the Alaskan Panhandle where cooler than average water temperatures persist in the nearby Pacific Ocean.
While those in Western Washington, Oregon's Willamette Valley and the far upper Midwest at least have equal chances of experiencing warmer, cooler…or just plain average summer temperatures with La Niña conditions helping to hold temperatures in check across the far North.
The dry June in the West holds true into the rest of summer for the Plains, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.
Meanwhile, forecasters have a higher confidence of above average rainfall along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard, as well as hinting at another potential active and early start to the monsoon season in the Desert Southwest.