Odds increase for tropical development as Invest 92L brings soaking rains to Florida, Southeast Atlantic coast

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FOX Weather is keeping a close eye on Invest 92L along the Southeast coast. FOX Weather Storm Specialist Mike Seidel is live from Jacksonville Beach, Florida, with his thoughts on the recent changes observed off the Atlantic coastline.

A cluster of thunderstorms starting to swirl off the South Carolina coast could become a tropical or subtropical depression later Friday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

For now, the NHC continues to monitor the system, currently designated Invest 92L off the Southeast coast on Friday for tropical development.

An invest is a naming convention used to identify areas forecasters are investigating for possible tropical development into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days.

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The NHC upped the odds for Invest 92L to the high range early Friday afternoon. Should something develop, the FOX Forecast Center said it is not expected to become very strong. Still, tropical downpours are likely for Florida and the Southeast Atlantic coast regardless of any tropical development.

Invest 92L designated off Southeast coast

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor newly designated Invest 92L off the Southeast coast on Friday for tropical development.

NOAA's Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the area of disturbed weather off the Southeast coast Friday afternoon to further investigate the atmospheric conditions over the region.

HERE’S WHAT TO EXPECT IN THE TROPICS DURING JULY

The dying front that has been causing heavy rain over the Carolinas will interact with an upper-level disturbance over Florida over the next few days. Out of that combination, a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm has a decent chance of forming off the Southeast coast. 

Even if a circulation develops, it's not likely to change the threat from this system, which is the potential for flooding. Pockets of 5-plus-inch rainfall have already occurred across Florida and coastal Georgia and the Carolinas. Significant additional rainfall is expected into next week, especially in eastern North Carolina.

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Through Saturday, the upper-level system that has been triggering the rain in Florida will remain in place, so tropical downpours are likely to continue over the so-called Sunshine State. 

By Sunday, however, the focus shifts to the eastern part of the Carolinas and the potential tropical system. Though a tail of tropical moisture will still be draped across the Florida peninsula.

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The FOX Forecast Center said there is strong consensus among the various computer forecast models, including the new AI models, that the formation zone will be off the Georgia coast, if an organized system indeed forms. 

Early next week, it looks likely that the disturbance, tropical depression or tropical storm, whatever it ends up being, will track along the Carolina coast and out to sea.

It's too early to know if the potential system will track inland or stay offshore of the Carolinas, the FOX Forecast Center notes. It's not expected to become very strong, but if winds over the ocean reach 40 mph, it will get the name Chantal.

Stay aware of the latest alerts for your area. The overall system and the individual thunderstorm cells are expected to be slow-moving, so local flooding is a real possibility for the next couple of days in Florida, then shifting to the Carolinas.