Invest 91L's odds for tropical development bump up as system eyes Mexico's eastern coast
While the disturbance remained over land Saturday morning, some tropical development is possible later Saturday into Sunday as the low moves west-northwest out into the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of America
Invest 91L near Mexico could impact Texas
Currently brewing off the coast of Mexico, a cluster of thunderstorms known as "Invest 91L" is expected to bring an increased risk of scattered showers for south Texas.
MIAMI -- Odds are increasing that an area of showers and thunderstorms over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula could briefly develop into a tropical depression later this weekend as it enters the southern Gulf of America before it crashes back into Mexico's East Coast.
The National Hurricane Center has so far designated the broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Yucatan Peninsula as Invest 91L.
An "invest" is a naming convention used by the National Hurricane Center to identify areas they are investigating for possible development into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days. The designation allows the agency to run specialized computer forecast models to track the area’s potential storm development.
While the disturbance remained over land Saturday morning, some tropical development is possible later Saturday into Sunday as the low moves west-northwest out into the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of America, "and a tropical depression could form at this time," the NHC says.
(FOX Weather)
If so, it would be named Tropical Depression Two. Right now, the NHC gives medium odds of the system reaching tropical depression criteria. If by chance the storm's peak winds managed to reach 40 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Barry.
Whatever the storm becomes, it's not expected to last long. By Monday, the system should move inland over eastern Mexico, ending any further tropical development though carrying enough moisture to bring heavy rains to portions of Belize, Guatemala and southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. No impacts are expected to the U.S.
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Still, NOAA says Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly reconnaissance flights into the area to watch over the weekend to understand the strength of the disturbance and better understand how powerful the system could become.
"We'll be watching this, and I think the timeline here it really is short," said FOX Weather Meteorologist Jane Minar. "It's probably not going to be 7 days from now. We're really looking through maybe about Monday where we could maybe see a circulation come together."
So far, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet, with the basin’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or what is commonly referred to as ACE, sitting at a meager 0.2 units.
ACE is a metric used by forecasters to quantify the strength and duration of tropical cyclones, with greater values indicating stronger, longer-lasting systems.
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According to data compiled by Colorado State University, the 2025 ACE value is more than 90% below average for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America.