Iceland volcanic activity continues to wane, reducing Grindavik eruption threat

Name: Aerial views of southwestern Iceland show volcanic crater, cracks
Uploaded: 2023-11-17T16:34:21-05:00
Duration: 4 min 37 s
Description: A volcanic eruption is possible near the region of Grindavik in Iceland. This video shows an aerial perspective of the area. (Courtesy: Reuters)

A volcanic eruption is possible near the region of Grindavik in Iceland. This video shows an aerial perspective of the area. (Courtesy: Reuters)

04:37

Aerial views of southwestern Iceland show volcanic crater, cracks

A volcanic eruption is possible near the region of Grindavik in Iceland. This video shows an aerial perspective of the area. (Courtesy: Reuters)

GRINDAVIK, Iceland – Earthquake activity continues to decrease in southwestern Iceland where residents remain evacuated and on edge, wary of a potential volcanic eruption that has been threatening the region for two weeks.

On Wednesday, Icelandic officials measured just 100 quakes between midnight at 6 p.m. – a drop from about 300 quakes the day before and significantly less than the thousands that were measured daily earlier this month. A few hundred more quakes were measured Thursday, but most were below magnitude 1.0, officials said.

WHAT HAPPENS BEFORE A VOLCANO ERUPTS?

Still, the significant threat of a volcanic eruption persists along the 9-mile-long channel where magma has intruded over the past few weeks, though the risk of an eruption in the heart of the Grindavik urban center has lessened.

GRINDAVIK, ICELAND - 29 OCTOBER 2023: A satellite view of the coastal town Grindavík, Stóra-Skógsfell mountain peak, Blue Lagoon hot springs and Svartsengi Geothermal Power Plant, Geldingadalir volcano and Fagradalsfjall volcano on the Reykjanes Peninsula. (Photo by Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2023)

(Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2023 / Getty Images)

"Based on the latest data, and considering the evolution of activity since (Nov. 10), the likelihood of a sudden eruption within the Grindavík urban area is decreasing daily, and it is presently assessed as low," officials with the Icelandic Met Office wrote Thursday. "It can be assumed that newly emplaced magma beneath Grindavík has solidified partially, thereby reducing the likelihood that the magma will reach the surface within the city limits. However, we emphasise that the possibility of a volcanic eruption at some point along the length of the intrusion, particularly between Hagafell and Sýlingarfell, remains plausible."

CAN ONE VOLCANO'S ERUPTION TRIGGER AN ERUPTION AT ANOTHER VOLCANO?

Officials had worried that severe weather with howling winds and pounding surf that was buffeting the island on Tuesday and Wednesday would hamper getting accurate data from sensitive seismic equipment.

GRINDAVIK, ICELAND - 2023/11/17: The road to Grindavik is closed by emergency services and police. Access is only possible with special permits. (Photo by Raúl Moreno/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

(Raúl Moreno/SOPA Images/LightRocket / Getty Images)

"During the period of severe weather on 21 and 22 November, efforts were made to assess how weather conditions and ocean swell influences IMO's monitoring systems," the IMO wrote Thursday. But the IMO stated on Thursday the number and intensity of quakes above magnitude 2.0 have decreased.

"As crustal relaxation continues to occur and seismicity decreases, along with a decrease in magma inflow to the intrusion, the likelihood of an imminent volcanic eruption diminishes with time," the IMO said Friday.

Evacuations almost two weeks ago

Residents of the town fled their homes on Nov. 10 when the IMO put the area under high alert as magma pooled under the town. The magma intrusion has been setting off up to 2,000 earthquakes per day as it presses up the surface of the Earth. Photos and video show torn streets and a twisted landscape.

CAN VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AFFECT THE WEATHER?

"There's no certainty about whether we will be able to get back to our home or not," Hans Vera, an evacuated resident told, FOX Weather earlier this month. "It just depends on where the probable eruption is going to happen. If it's coming up in the middle of town, which is a possibility, then there's a great chance that all of Grindavik, all of town, all of the villages is going under."

Meanwhile, the Icelandic government continues to build two walls, 3-miles long and 25-feet high to divert the magma away from the neighborhood and a geothermal energy plant serving over 30,000 families.

"They continue to monitor that ten-mile long tunnel of magma. At this point, they think the most likely eruption point is 2 to 6 miles north of Grindavik. And at that point, it depends on which way the lava will flow," FOX News Correspondent Bryan Llenas told FOX Weather on Tuesday. "They hope to have enough time to put up barriers to divert it and try to save the town in a worst-case scenario."