Unsettled weather is expected in Texas for the first half of the week, starting with the possibility of flooding rains in the Houston area Monday.
A trough of low pressure near the Texas Gulf Coast and a cold front moving into West Texas will be the focus of forecasters across the Southern Plains through Wednesday.
Texas Gulf Coast
The trough combined with copious amounts of tropical moisture provided by the Gulf of Mexico will lead to downpours from Matagorda Bay to Beaumont and inland to near College Station and Victoria.
"Early on, it’s all of that moisture coming in off the Gulf," said FOX Weather meteorologist Steve Bender. "You’ll see that play out, and then it rises north to the I-20 corridor, towards Tyler, Longview, Texas to Shreveport (in Louisiana)."
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Weather Prediction Center has highlighted an area for a slight risk (2/5) of excessive rainfall that covers heavily populated areas of the Texas Gulf Coast, including Houston, Galveston, The Woodlands and Beaumont. Rainfall rates in this area could near 3 inches per hour in some places, which could cause street flooding and rises on small creeks and bayous.
A cold front moving into West Texas on Monday afternoon will be the focus of showers and storms that could also produce some isolated heavy rain.
"We’re focusing in the evening time in West Texas, and this front that sets up over the Permian Basin from Midland, Texas, all the way up toward Wichita Falls," Bender said.
The WPC has placed a large swatch of western Texas under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Monday, and a flood watch has been issued for the Midland area through Tuesday afternoon.
Forecasters said up to 3 inches of rain is possible in the watch area, which could lead to flash flooding near or downstream of any storm.
Drought in Texas
The rains will be beneficial for a state left parched by the scorching summer sun.
There was a slight improvement in the Dallas area last week by rains that led to flooding across the Metroplex. The Houston area has also seen some improvement in the past week.
Exceptional drought still covers much of central and western Texas and extreme drought stretches from near Amarillo to just south of San Antonio.