Southeast sees Mother's Day weekend washout from Gulf tropical moisture

The persistent heavy rain, stretching from the Carolinas down to Florida, combined with already saturated ground from the past week's weather, creates a heightened risk of flash flooding across the region.

NEW ORLEANS – Residents across the southeastern U.S. remain squarely in the path of a widespread flood threat, with some areas anticipating nearly half a foot of rainfall.

The FOX Forecast Center said this deluge is expected to continue not just through the Mother's Day weekend but well into the middle of next week.

The persistent heavy rain, stretching from the Carolinas down to Florida, combined with already saturated ground from the past week's weather, creates a heightened risk of flash flooding across the region. 

"For folks that live across the Southeast, it's not just the hail or the damaging winds. It is a rain problem," warned FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin.

DAMAGE REPORTED IN LOUISIANA AFTER POSSIBLE TORNADO AMID ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER ALONG GULF COAST

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Street flooding around New Orleans on Friday 5/9/2025 (Chris Welty/WVUE FOX 8)

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Street flooding around New Orleans on Friday 5/9/2025 (Chris Welty/WVUE FOX 8)

On Saturday, a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk exists for portions of southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Rainfall rates associated with developing storms may overwhelm already saturated soils, particularly in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

The FOX Forecast Center said a developing area of low pressure off the Georgia coast will enhance onshore flow Saturday, drawing Atlantic moisture into portions of southern Georgia and South Carolina.

This setup will intensify rainfall coverage and rates, increasing the potential for localized flooding into Sunday. For this reason, a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk exists Sunday through Monday morning, encompassing areas from Tallahassee, Florida, to Charleston, South Carolina.

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"For a Saturday (when) you're trying to travel … it's going to be really tough," Merwin stressed. "Any flights through Atlanta will probably struggle this weekend just because of the weather."

Western North Carolina, still recovering from Hurricane Helene nearly eight months ago, is projected to receive an additional 2-3 inches of rain through Tuesday. Given recent saturation levels, even modest rainfall could exacerbate runoff and flood concerns in the region, according to the FOX Forecast Center.

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The system is expected to exit the Southeast by Tuesday, gradually diminishing the flash flood threat. 

However, rainfall totals throughout the duration of the event are expected to range from 3-5 inches across much of the Southeast, with localized amounts exceeding 7 inches near the Atlantic coast in southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.

While the rainfall may pose short-term hazards, long-term benefits are anticipated. In South Carolina, where nearly 49% of the state is experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions, the incoming precipitation may provide much-needed relief.

In Florida, the rain could help suppress wildfire activity during what is considered to be the peak of the fire season.

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Most rainfall deficits in Florida currently range from 2 to 6 inches, with 96% of the state considered to be unusually dry and 25% experiencing severe drought conditions, according to the latest drought monitor.

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